Geoff Kendrick, a lead analyst at Standard Chartered known for his historically bullish stance on digital assets, has issued a stark warning regarding Bitcoin’s (BTC) short-term trajectory. Kendrick suggests that the premier cryptocurrency faces a significant downside risk that could see prices plummet to the $50,000 handle. In tandem with this warning, the bank has officially revised its ambitious 2026 price targets downward.
Retreating from High-Water Marks
The bank, which previously forecasted Bitcoin to surge toward the $200,000 mark by 2026, has walked back those projections in light of tightening global liquidity and harsher-than-expected macroeconomic headwinds. Kendrick characterized the current market structure as undergoing a necessary “washout” phase, noting that the probability of testing the $50,000 psychological floor has increased substantially.
The Road to $50K: Key Drivers
Kendrick’s bearish pivot is predicated on several systemic factors:
- Liquidity Crunch: The ongoing contraction in global dollar liquidity continues to exert significant downward pressure on high-beta risk assets like Bitcoin.
- Stagnant ETF Inflows: A noticeable cooling of interest in Spot Bitcoin ETFs and a slowdown in institutional entry has left the market devoid of the catalysts needed to drive price appreciation.
- Macro Uncertainty: Persistent ambiguity surrounding the Federal Reserve’s rate path and inflation data is prompting investors to seek refuge in traditional safe havens.
The Analyst’s Take: “A Painful Cleansing”
Despite the grim forecast, Kendrick suggests that such a drawdown may serve as a “cleansing” process to flush out speculative froth from the ecosystem. However, he cautioned that a retreat to the $50,000 level would likely trigger a massive liquidation event, particularly among over-leveraged market participants.
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