Nick Szabo on Bitcoin: Adoption Waves, Speculation, and the Learning Curve
Bitcoin [BTC] remains in its global learning phase, driven more by human psychology than by macroeconomic signals, according to pioneering cryptographer Nick Szabo. Szabo, whose early writings helped shape Bitcoin’s philosophy, recently broke his silence with a detailed thread analyzing what truly drives the world’s oldest cryptocurrency.
Bitcoin’s Learning Curve: Psychological Over Technical
Szabo explained that Bitcoin’s trajectory is less about charts, M2 money supply, or gold correlations, and more about human understanding. “Bitcoin is climbing its learning curve — not technically, but psychologically,” he said. As more people recognize Bitcoin’s role as a trust-minimized, dilution-resistant form of savings, it begins to emerge as a store of value in a volatile global economy and shifting monetary landscape.
He compared Bitcoin to hot NASDAQ stocks, noting that its long-term pattern involves adoption waves, speculative overshoots, and significant noise in between. The key takeaway: Bitcoin’s market movements reflect human learning and behavior more than traditional market cycles.
Sound Money Thesis: Signals Buried Under Speculation
While Szabo acknowledged that sound money signals exist, he emphasized that they are currently “buried under speculation.” According to him, these signals will dominate only once Bitcoin completes its educational cycle and is no longer viewed primarily as a technological investment.
When asked whether Bitcoin might hit a “ceiling or a cliff,” Szabo dismissed the concern, citing the history of money and Bitcoin’s architecture as sufficient indicators of likely outcomes. Despite the market trading around $104,500 and showing a near 2% decline, Szabo’s message was clear: Bitcoin’s most important signal is education, not macroeconomics, and this process is only beginning.
As Bitcoin continues its global adoption, understanding its educational curve may prove more crucial than tracking short-term price movements. Szabo’s insights remind investors and enthusiasts alike that the cryptocurrency’s true “sound money” potential is still unfolding.
