JPMorgan: Bitcoin’s Path to $126K Depends on Matching Gold’s Stability
JPMorgan – Bitcoin isn’t swinging wildly anymore. According to JPMorgan, the world’s largest cryptocurrency has seen its volatility fall from 60% at the start of 2025 to around 30% now. That’s the calmest Bitcoin has looked in years, and it could be exactly what institutional investors were waiting for.
Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, a strategist at JPMorgan, said that if Bitcoin’s volatility continues to decline and moves closer to gold’s stability, then investment allocations could follow. Right now, the gap between Bitcoin and gold’s volatility is the lowest on record, making the comparison more relevant than ever.
Corporate Treasuries Are Driving Stability
The sudden drop in volatility isn’t random. Over the past year, corporate treasurers have pulled a massive amount of Bitcoin out of circulation. These companies, many inspired by MicroStrategy’s playbook, have collectively scooped up more than 6% of Bitcoin’s supply.
By holding instead of trading, they’ve slowed down the panic selling and hype buying that used to fuel chaos in the market. On top of that, many of these firms are being added to global equity indices, giving Bitcoin more legitimacy in traditional finance.
A Path Toward $126,000?
For big money managers, risk is everything. As Panigirtzoglou explained, higher volatility means higher risk capital. But with calmer price action, Bitcoin is becoming easier to fit into institutional portfolios.
JPMorgan estimates that if Bitcoin’s volatility keeps aligning with gold, institutional allocations could rise to match gold’s. In that scenario, Bitcoin’s price would need to climb about 13% higher, landing around $126,000 — just above its record high from last weekend.
Currently, Bitcoin’s price sits roughly 10% below its all-time high, leaving what JPMorgan calls “some upside potential.” In other words, with calmer waters and tighter supply, Bitcoin may finally be ready to play in the same league as gold.
