Have Net Bitcoin Purchases Dropped Below Mining Supply?
Net institutional purchases of Bitcoin have fallen below the daily issuance rate for the first time in seven months, signaling a potentially concerning shift in market dynamics, according to crypto investment analysts.
On Monday, Charles Edwards, head of Capriole Investments, shared stark data on his X account, expressing immediate concern. “Won’t lie, this was the main metric keeping me bullish the last months while every other asset outperformed Bitcoin. Not good,” Edwards commented, highlighting a major shift in sentiment.
Institutional Pressure Fades
Edwards’ chart tracks key institutional buying and selling metrics, including miners (red), spot ETFs and similar institutional inflows (light green), and BTC Digital Asset Treasury (DAT) corporate activity (orange). The data illustrates a staggered decline in demand: corporate BTC DAT purchases began falling significantly around August 14, initially offset by spot ETF inflows. However, following the October 10 market crash, spot ETF buying contracted sharply. The net effect is that total institutional demand now sits below the daily mining supply, a key metric previously underpinning bullish sentiment.
The histogram at the bottom of Edwards’ chart, representing institutional pressure with green for buying and red for selling, is noticeably shifting toward red.
Heavy Bags and Whale Activity
Edwards warned of immediate structural weakness, noting 188 treasury companies carrying heavy Bitcoin holdings and fewer institutional buyers compared to prior months.
Adding to the market pressure, on-chain data from Lookonchain shows large whale movements. A notable whale, “BitcoinOG (1011short),” deposited approximately 13,000 BTC ($1.48 billion) to exchanges like Kraken, Binance, Coinbase, and Hyperliquid since October 1. Meanwhile, whale Owen Gunden transferred 3,265 BTC ($364.5 million) to Kraken after October 21, moves that often precede significant liquidations.
While short-term caution is warranted, Edwards emphasizes that these trends do not dictate long-term Bitcoin performance, leaving the door open for market reversals in the coming months or years.
