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Gold, Silver, and Bitcoin: 2025 Performance Divergence
Gold and silver have continued to surpass Bitcoin in annual performance, with traders closely watching the U.S. Federal Reserve’s upcoming interest rate decision on December 10. According to Trading Economics, silver has returned 86% this year, while gold has gained 60%. In contrast, Bitcoin has declined by 1.2%, Yahoo Finance data shows.
Ryan McMillin, chief investment officer at Merkle Tree Capital, told Decrypt that “a convergence of monetary debasement fears, macro uncertainty, and confused signals from the central bank is helping to push precious metals higher.”
Inflation Concerns and Fed Policy Uncertainty
Investors are reportedly positioning for a potential Fed “policy error,” McMillin noted, referring to a scenario in which the central bank cuts rates despite inflation remaining above its 2% target. Key indicators, such as Core PCE—which tracks the prices of goods and services—have been trending around 3% annually, particularly in services and housing.
Diverging Performance Across Asset Classes
This defensive shift into hard assets has led to a pronounced divergence. While gold and silver surge, risk-on equities like the Nasdaq and S&P 500 have also rallied, posting 21% and 16% gains year-to-date, respectively. “Equities have been grinding higher in a very conventional way—earnings growth, buybacks, and an AI-driven capex story,” McMillin said.
Bitcoin, by comparison, is recovering from October’s liquidation and subsequent de-leveraging, which ended its sustained uptrend following the ETF launch. McMillin described the situation as the S&P experiencing a “late-cycle melt-up” while Bitcoin is in a “mid-cycle repair” phase.
On-Chain Data Highlights Short-Term Holder Capitulation
On-chain metrics provide additional context. The total supply in loss has risen, indicating capitulation among short-term holders—a feature typical of a mid-cycle reset rather than a bear market, analysts previously told Decrypt.
Glassnode’s Thursday report noted that although Bitcoin has dropped over 26% from its $126,080 record high, it has stabilized around the true market mean, which represents the cost basis of all active coins, excluding miners. Analysts suggest that this level marks the threshold between a mild bearish phase and deeper bearish territory.
Despite Bitcoin’s underperformance relative to metals and U.S. equities, McMillin anticipates that this divergence is temporary. He expects the cryptocurrency’s trend to eventually align with global liquidity and equity markets as its order books recover. Glassnode analysts also noted that Bitcoin’s sensitivity to macro shocks will likely remain unless it reclaims the 0.85 quantile, roughly $106,200.
Bitcoin has been trading in a $94,000 to $82,000 range for over two weeks and was down 1.3% over 24 hours, according to CoinGecko data.
