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Galaxy Lowers Bitcoin Year-End Target to $120K
Galaxy, an institutional cryptocurrency firm, announced on Wednesday that it is lowering its Bitcoin year-end target from $185,000 to $120,000. The update follows a significant market downturn, with Bitcoin falling below $100,000 on Tuesday for the first time in six months, as liquidations exceeding $2 billion swept across the crypto market.
Entering the “Maturity Era”
In a note to clients, Galaxy described Bitcoin as entering a new phase, termed the “maturity era.” The firm explained, “institutional absorption, passive flows, and lower volatility will dominate.” During this period, the pace of future gains is expected to slow, meaning Bitcoin may approach previous all-time highs only by the end of the year.
Despite the recent decline, Bitcoin traded at $103,923 following Tuesday’s market turmoil, marking a roughly 3% daily increase. Nevertheless, the cryptocurrency remains almost 18% below its all-time high of $126,080 recorded last month, according to CoinGecko data.
Market Dynamics Shift
Galaxy noted that several factors are shifting the market dynamics against Bitcoin.
One major event was the record $19 billion liquidation cascade on October 10, triggered by President Trump’s threat of substantial tariffs against China. The note stated that this incident “has put a dent in investor confidence as well as market liquidity.”
In addition, alternative assets are increasingly competing with Bitcoin for investor attention. Gold, AI-related stocks, and other emerging investment options are challenging Bitcoin’s traditional appeal. Stablecoins have also become a prominent topic within the crypto community, further diverting focus away from Bitcoin.
Policy Uncertainty
On the policy front, Galaxy highlighted that expectations around government involvement in Bitcoin have not materialized. When Trump returned to office in January, a Bitcoin strategic reserve was expected to be a key discussion point. However, “after signing an executive order to establish a strategic reserve, there have been no Bitcoin purchases and the government has been ‘very quiet’ about the venture in general,” the note said.
Retail Investor Apathy
Galaxy also observed that retail interest in Bitcoin has waned since 2021. The note described retail buyers as “apathetic”toward cryptocurrency, stating that last year’s meme coin mania briefly drew attention back to the sector but did not translate into sustained confidence in Bitcoin.
This trend is expected to affect companies holding Bitcoin treasuries. Previously, a company’s stock often rose in tandem with Bitcoin. With Bitcoin’s price momentum cooling, Galaxy suggested that these firms will need to identify alternative revenue sources, as relying solely on Bitcoin price increases may no longer be viable.
Predictive Analysis
Independent analysis from Myriad predicts a 64% likelihood that Bitcoin will reach $115,000 before dropping to $85,000. (Disclosure: Myriad is developed by Decrypt’s parent company, Dastan.)
Alex Thorn, Galaxy’s head of research and author of the note, shared his long-term perspective on X, stating that he remains optimistic about Bitcoin over time. He added that achieving previous highs may simply take longer than initially expected.
Market Implications
Galaxy’s revised forecast and analysis suggest a period of slower growth and more measured volatility for Bitcoin. Institutional adoption and passive flows are expected to define market behavior during the maturity era, while retail apathy and competing investment assets may keep speculative surges in check.
The note underscores the importance of understanding Bitcoin’s evolving role within broader financial markets. While the cryptocurrency remains a high-profile digital asset, its short-term dynamics are influenced by liquidation events, government policy, and competition from both traditional and emerging asset classes.
Bitcoin is navigating a transitional phase, described by Galaxy as a maturity era characterized by slower gains, lower volatility, and growing institutional influence. The market has shifted due to liquidation pressures, regulatory uncertainty, and increasing competition from alternative investments. While long-term confidence in Bitcoin persists among certain analysts, the journey to previous all-time highs may be more gradual than past cycles have suggested.
