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Bitcoin Faces Stiff 200-Day SMA Resistance as Market Awaits Breakout
Bitcoin (BTC) may be gearing up for a dramatic reversal — just not anytime soon. According to new market analysis, the next true Bitcoin price bottom may take until 2026 to fully form, even as selling pressure cools and conditions begin setting the stage for a potential move back toward $99,000.
Analyst Warns: Bitcoin’s Long-Term Bottom Could Be 12 Months Away
Crypto analyst Jason Pizzino shared his latest outlook, predicting that BTC/USD could face nearly a year of lower lows before finding its long-term bottom. In his Thursday YouTube update, Pizzino suggested Bitcoin might not hit its lowest point until October 2026.
He highlighted community expectations of a “bounce zone” forming within the next 11 months but cautioned that it’s still too early to determine whether this future low will spark a breakout to new all-time highs or simply form a lower high, especially given Bitcoin’s position within the broader 18-year risk-asset cycle, which he connects to real estate market behavior.
Declining Volume Sets Up Potential ‘Shock Move’
Pizzino pointed to Bitcoin’s steadily declining trading volume, a pattern he compared to late 2022 and early 2023 — a period that ultimately acted as the launchpad for the current bull cycle.
“And that’s where these shock moves happen because the majority are not watching,” he explained.
In the short term, however, he sees limited potential for a major trend change. The 200-day SMA continues to act as firm resistance, while trader appetite remains muted, as reflected in a balanced long/short ratio.
Cooling Sell-Side Pressure Could Fuel a $99K Rebound
On-chain data from CryptoQuant also points toward a consolidation phase rather than imminent volatility. In its latest weekly report, “The Calm Before The Vol,” the platform noted a sharp decline in exchange inflows from large holders.
Large-player deposits dropped from 47% in mid-November to just 21%, while the average deposit size fell from 1.1 BTC to 0.7 BTC — a 36% decrease. According to researchers, this reduction signals easing selling pressure, potentially setting the stage for a relief rally.
If seller activity continues to cool, CryptoQuant forecasts that BTC/USD could revisit $99,000, marking the lower band of the Trader On-chain Realized Price resistance zone.
