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Key Indicator Shows Historical Pattern
Macro strategist Gert van Lagen highlighted a notable signal from Bitcoin’s Bollinger BandWidth in an X thread on Wednesday. The Bollinger BandWidth measures the percentage difference between the upper and lower Bollinger Bands, which themselves act as leading indicators for BTC price volatility.
According to data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView, the BandWidth on monthly timeframes is currently at one of its smallest levels ever. Historically, when the BandWidth falls below 100 on its scale, Bitcoin prices have reacted sharply.
“Historically, every time this triggers, Bitcoin follows with a direct parabolic leg up,” Van Lagen commented.
An accompanying chart shows previous instances of such parabolic results. The last significant “green” signal occurred in early November 2023, after which BTC/USD doubled in just four months.
Historical Comparisons and Future Outlook
Van Lagen compared the current setup to historical events in traditional markets.
“This setup is identical to GOOGL prior to its final blow-off wave, right before the 2008 financial crisis. A cascade of lower highs on the Bollinger BandWidth, which gets broken to feed the subsequent bearish HTF volatility,” he wrote.
He also hinted at expectations of a final push to new highs for Bitcoin before the next bear market phase begins.
Market Caution Despite Technical Signals
Despite these signals, traders remain cautious about Bitcoin’s current strength. On Wednesday, BTC/USD reached its highest level in over two weeks, approaching $94,000, fueled in part by speculation regarding a pro-crypto U.S. Federal Reserve chair.
Trader Daan Crypto Trades noted on X:
“Price did now make a higher high and higher low, so technically the market structure is back to bullish on this timeframe. But to properly get this going I want to see it sustain above this current price area.”
Key Price Zones and Year-End Considerations
As reported by Cointelegraph, the current spot price zone is particularly significant for the 2025 yearly candle, with BTC/USD beginning the year at $93,500.
Analyst Rekt Capital noted:
“Bitcoin has an entire month to perform 2% upside to end the month above the ~$93,500 Four Year Cycle level and close the year as a green candle.”
