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Bitcoin Market Split Widens: Whales Accumulate, Retail Retreats
Bitcoin’s largest holders are quietly increasing their positions while small investors retreat, marking a sharp divergence that has historically signaled major market turning points. According to new on-chain data, whale wallets holding at least 1,000 BTC have climbed to a four-month high, while the number of retail wallets with 1 BTC or less has dropped to a yearly low.
Whales Accumulate as BTC Experiences Sharp Drawdown
Fresh data from Glassnode shows that large Bitcoin holders increased their count to 1,384 wallets this week, up from 1,354 just three weeks ago—a 2.2% rise. This is the highest level since mid-year and suggests growing confidence among institutions and high-net-worth investors.
Retail sentiment, however, has moved in the opposite direction. Wallets holding 1 BTC or less have declined to 977,420, down from 980,577 in late October—marking the lowest participation level in a year. The trend reflects a familiar pattern: experienced whales accumulate during downturns, while small holders capitulate under pressure.
Bitcoin recently faced its third-largest drawdown of the current cycle, falling more than 25% from its all-time high six weeks ago. On Wednesday, BTC opened near $92,600 and traded in a narrow, volatile Asian session between $92,200 and $92,800.
Short-Term Holder Metrics Approach Cycle Low Territory
Historical indicators suggest the market may be nearing a stabilization phase. Only 7.6% of short-term holder supply remains in profit, a level often seen at cycle lows. Meanwhile, the STH Realized Profit-Loss Ratio has dropped below 0.20, another reading frequently associated with market bottoms.
Market sentiment remains deeply pessimistic. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has held at 11/100 for two consecutive days, as social media fills with jokes about traders returning to conventional jobs and losing hope for a fast recovery.
Bearish Pressure Dominates, but Capital Stays in Crypto
Data from Coinglass indicates persistent bearish pressure, with many traders positioning for further declines. Although occasional spikes of optimism appear, the sentiment quickly reverts to negative. Still, on-chain data from Bitfinex points to selling exhaustion and suggests that capital is rotating within the crypto ecosystem rather than exiting entirely.
Open Interest for BTC/USDT remains around 100K, indicating strong trader participation despite lower prices. Rising Open Interest alongside falling prices typically signals bearish expectations and aggressive shorting. Yet a slowdown in realized losses hints that the market may be shifting toward consolidation.
Market Correction Seen as Healthy Reset
Veteran financier Bob Diamond, former CEO of Barclays and current head of Atlas Merchant Capital, describes recent global asset volatility as a “healthy correction” rather than the beginning of a long-term downturn. According to Diamond, investors are still learning how to price risk assets amid rapid technological change.
As Bitcoin searches for a bottom heading into late 2025, the widening gap between whale accumulation and retail selling underscores a classic market structure. The coming weeks will determine whether institutional buying can stabilize the market—or if fear continues to dictate momentum.
