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Bitcoin Holds Steady Despite Missing Year-End Price Surge
Bitcoin’s quiet finish to the year may be doing more good than harm, according to prominent Bitcoin entrepreneur Anthony Pompliano. Speaking on CNBC, Pompliano argued that the absence of a dramatic year-end surge could actually reduce the risk of a severe market downturn in early 2025.
Pompliano pointed to a notable compression in Bitcoin’s volatility, suggesting that the current market structure makes an extreme drawdown less likely. As he explained, “Given where the volatility is right now, it would be very surprising that Bitcoin’s volatility has drastically compressed and yet still could get a 70% or 80% drawdown.”
Long-Term Performance Overshadows Short-Term Frustration
While some investors may be disappointed that Bitcoin did not reach widely publicized price targets this year, Pompliano emphasized the importance of taking a longer-term view. “We have to remember that Bitcoin is up 100% in two years. It’s up almost 300% in three years. It has been compounding,” he said, adding, “This thing has been a monster in financial markets.”
Bitcoin is trading near $87,400 at the time of publication, reflecting a modest decline since the start of the year. However, this price action comes without the sharp boom-and-bust cycle that has historically followed late-stage bull market rallies.
No Blow-Off Top, No Historic Crash
Pompliano noted that many market participants expected a rapid surge—often described as a “blow-off top”—toward the end of the year. That surge never arrived. Importantly, neither did the steep collapse that has followed similar episodes in the past. “We didn’t get a blowoff top… but we haven’t seen the big 80% drawdown that people normally expect as well,” he said.
According to Pompliano, lower volatility may limit explosive upside moves, but it also provides “some degree of safety”on the downside.
Diverging Outlooks for the Years Ahead
Not all analysts share this relatively optimistic assessment. Jurrien Timmer, Fidelity’s director of global macroeconomic research, has suggested that 2026 could be a weaker period for Bitcoin, with prices potentially retreating toward the mid-$60,000 range.
As perspectives diverge, Bitcoin’s evolving volatility profile is becoming a central theme in discussions about its future market behavior—highlighting a shift from dramatic cycles toward a potentially more mature asset structure.
