Bitcoin Sell-Side Pressure Nears Saturation as Long-Term Holder Supply Reactivates – K33 Report
Bitcoin (BTC) has faced prolonged sell-side pressure from long-term holders, but research from K33 suggests this trend is approaching saturation following a multi-year distribution phase.
Long-Term Bitcoin Supply Reactivation
In a December 16 report, K33 Head of Research Vetle Lunde noted that unspent transaction outputs (UTXOs) older than two years have been steadily declining since 2024. Approximately 1.6 million BTC ($138 billion at current prices) has been reactivated, signaling sustained on-chain selling from early adopters.
While some of this movement is linked to Grayscale’s Bitcoin Trust converting to a spot ETF, wallet consolidation, and security upgrades, Lunde emphasized that these factors alone cannot explain the magnitude of supply returning to circulation.
Historical Context and Corporate Influence
K33 highlighted 2024 and 2025 as the second and third-largest years for long-term BTC reactivation, surpassed only by 2017. Unlike prior cycles driven by altcoin trading and ICOs, the current wave reflects direct selling into deep liquidity from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs and corporate treasury demand.
Notable transactions include an 80,000 BTC OTC sale by Galaxy, a 24,000 BTC whale sale for Ether, and an 11,000 BTC sale between October and November. K33 estimates that $300 billion worth of BTC aged one year or more has been revived in 2025 alone. This influx of institutional liquidity has allowed early holders to realize profits at six-digit prices, reshaping ownership concentration and establishing new reference prices for circulating supply.
K33 anticipates sell-side pressure to ease, with 20% of BTC’s supply reactivated over the past two years. Lunde predicts that Bitcoin’s two-year supply will end its downtrend and close 2026 above the current ~12.16 million BTC, as early holder selling subsides and net buying demand emerges.
The report also highlights potential portfolio rebalancing effects toward the end of Q4, noting Bitcoin’s historical tendency to move opposite to the prior quarter early in a new quarter, which could support late December and early January inflows. Lunde added that growing mainstream integration through ETFs, advisory platforms, and regulatory clarity may sustain demand once distribution pressure fades.
