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Bitcoin’s October Recovery Patterns Signal Potential 21% Surge
Bitcoin may be gearing up for a significant comeback, according to economist Timothy Peterson, who points to historical October patterns as a potential roadmap for what’s next. Following a sharp drop to $102,000 on Friday — triggered by U.S. President Donald Trump’s 100% tariff announcement on China — Bitcoin has already shown signs of recovery, bouncing back to $112,468 at the time of writing.
But the question on every investor’s mind is: Could Bitcoin rally back toward its all-time high of $125,100 within the next week?
“Uptober” May Live Up to Its Name
October has long been considered a bullish month for Bitcoin — so much so that crypto enthusiasts have nicknamed it “Uptober.” And the data supports the optimism. According to CoinGlass, October has been Bitcoin’s second-best performing month on average since 2013, delivering an impressive 20.10% return, second only to November’s average 46.02% gain.
Peterson, a noted economist and crypto market analyst, shared on X (formerly Twitter) that drops of more than 5% in October are exceedingly rare, occurring only four times in the past decade — in 2017, 2018, 2019, and 2021. Interestingly, three out of those four years saw strong recoveries in the days that followed.
In 2017, Bitcoin bounced back 16% within a week, followed by a 4% recovery in 2018. The strongest rebound occurred in 2019, with an impressive 21% surge, while the only exception was in 2021, when Bitcoin fell an additional 3% instead.
Could Bitcoin Hit $124K Again in Just Days?
Peterson’s analysis suggests that if 2019’s 21% rebound repeats this week, Bitcoin could surge from its $102,000 low back up to around $124,000 — just shy of its most recent all-time high of $125,100, reached last Monday.
With Bitcoin already showing signs of recovery over the weekend, many in the crypto community are watching closely to see if history will, in fact, repeat itself.
Industry Voices Remain Bullish
Peterson isn’t the only one optimistic about a potential turnaround. Prominent figures in the Bitcoin space have also weighed in with confidence.
In an X post on Friday, Samson Mow, founder of Jan3, reminded his followers that “There are still 21 days left in Uptober” — suggesting that the recent pullback could be just a temporary detour on Bitcoin’s continued upward path.
Echoing this sentiment, Michael van de Poppe, founder of MN Trading Capital, called the recent drop “the bottom of the current cycle.” He compared it to the COVID-19 crash, which marked the bottom of the previous cycle and preceded a major bull run.
“The biggest liquidation crash in history. COVID-19 was the bottom of the previous cycle,” he said, implying that the current situation might mirror that moment in magnitude and importance.
Looking Further Ahead: The $1M BTC Scenario
Some analysts are already looking years ahead, envisioning Bitcoin’s future in a much higher price range — and warning that similar volatility will continue to exist even at sky-high valuations.
A crypto commentator known as The Bitcoin Libertarian shared a tongue-in-cheek but revealing thought:
“In a few years, Bitcoin will crash from $1M to $0.8M in a few hours, and we’ll all be talking about a new record high amount of liquidations.”
The remark reflects a broader sentiment in the community — that Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory may be up, but that volatility is a permanent feature, not a bug.
Letting History Be the Guide
The market may still be reeling from the shock of Trump’s tariff announcement, but historical data and past October trends provide a glimmer of hope. With previous post-dip Octobers producing double-digit rebounds, investors are eyeing this week with cautious optimism.
Whether Bitcoin climbs back to $124,000 or takes a different path remains to be seen, but if the past is any indicator, the coming days could be critical — and potentially profitable — for the world’s leading cryptocurrency.
As Peterson succinctly put it:
“Let history repeat.”
