ASML Stock Breaks Out with Robust Orders and Upbeat Future Forecast

ASML reported mixed Q3 earnings but saw a 105% surge in orders and provided optimistic 2026 sales guidance, driving its stock above $1,000.

Published by Ecem EFE

16 October 2025, 13:30 published Updated 16 October 2025, 13:30

ASML Stock Rallies on Robust AI Chip Demand and Bullish 2026 Guidance

ASML Stock – Semiconductor equipment titan ASML (NASDAQ: ASML) reported a blend of results in its third-quarter earnings released Wednesday, showing steady profits but slightly missing sales expectations. Despite this, the company’s strong order intake and optimistic sales forecast for 2026 drove ASML shares higher, highlighting investor confidence in its critical role in advanced chip manufacturing.

Q3 Performance: Earnings Meet Expectations, Sales Slightly Miss

ASML, the Netherlands-based maker of advanced photolithography machines, posted earnings of €6.37 per share on sales of €8.71 billion for the quarter ended September. This was just a hair above analyst estimates of €6.36 per share but fell short of the anticipated €9.02 billion in revenue.

For context, ASML’s Q3 2024 earnings of €6.37 per share showed improvement from €5.76 per share in the same period a year earlier, while revenue rose from €8.14 billion in Q3 2023.

Order Book Surges Over 100% Year-Over-Year

The real highlight came from ASML’s net bookings, which soared to €5.4 billion ($6.27 billion) in Q3, a staggering 105% increase compared to last year. This figure exceeded analyst forecasts of €4.9 billion, underscoring robust demand for ASML’s cutting-edge lithography tools that are vital in producing the latest generation of semiconductor chips.

Optimistic Outlook for Q4 and 2026

Looking ahead, ASML set guidance for the fourth quarter with expected sales of €9.5 billion ($11.05 billion), comfortably above analyst models pegged at €9.3 billion. For the full year 2025, the company projects 15% sales growth year-over-year along with a strong gross profit margin of about 52%.

The company also signaled confidence for 2026, forecasting sales to at least match 2025 levels. However, ASML cautioned that sales in China are expected to decline, reflecting geopolitical and market dynamics that could impact its footprint in the region.

Industry-Leading Technology Powers AI Revolution

ASML stands out as the world’s sole manufacturer of extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography equipment, technology that etches incredibly tiny circuits onto semiconductor wafers. This equipment is fundamental for producing state-of-the-art chips powering artificial intelligence applications and other high-performance computing needs.

CEO Christophe Fouquet highlighted continued momentum driven by investments in AI and expanding customer bases across leading-edge logic chips and advanced DRAM (dynamic random-access memory) segments. Yet, he tempered enthusiasm with a warning on anticipated sales drops in China for 2026, following strong performances in 2024 and 2025.

ASML Stock Breaks Out, Eyes Higher Levels

Following the earnings release, ASML stock jumped 2.7% to close at $1,009.81, reflecting investor approval of the order strength and guidance. Technical charts from IBD MarketSurge noted a breakout on October 1 from a long cup-with-handle base at a buy point of 977.48.

While the recent handle on the daily chart was minimal and not visible on weekly charts, the longer-term technical picture remains bullish. The weekly chart still shows a cup-with-handle pattern with a higher buy point at 1,059, signaling potential for further upside momentum.

ASML Navigates Market Challenges with Innovation and Demand

ASML’s Q3 results illustrate a company balancing market challenges with strong fundamental demand driven by technological leadership. Despite missing revenue estimates, its robust order backlog and positive 2026 sales outlook reinforce ASML’s essential position in the semiconductor supply chain, especially as AI adoption accelerates globally.

Investors will be closely watching how geopolitical headwinds, particularly in China, affect future sales, but ASML’s unique EUV technology and expanding customer base suggest it remains a powerhouse in enabling next-generation chip production.