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Bitcoin’s November Rally May Not Happen This Year, Analysts Warn
Bitcoin’s traditional role as a November comeback asset may not hold true this year. Crypto analysts suggest that the world’s largest cryptocurrency could trade sideways during a month that has historically brought strong gains.
Fed Uncertainty Fuels Market Consolidation
In a market report published Tuesday, Bitfinex analysts said the current macroeconomic environment supports consolidation.
“Easing policies continue, but mixed messaging from the Federal Reserve makes a stabilization phase necessary before volatility expands again,” they noted.
Analysts emphasized that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell signaled uncertainty about a possible 25-basis-point rate cut in December. This has prompted a cautious stance among market participants.
Fed rate cuts and expectations of further easing are typically seen as bullish signals for crypto assets. Lower rates often encourage investors to move away from safe assets like fixed deposits and bonds in search of higher returns.
December Rate Cut Probability Below 70%
According to CME FedWatch Tool data, markets currently see only a 67.9% chance of a rate cut at the December 10 meeting. In contrast, previous cuts over the past two months carried probabilities exceeding 90%.
Any pause or change in the Fed’s rate-cut trajectory could unsettle crypto traders. Since the dominant narrative favors continued easing, any deviation from this path may trigger market shocks.
Bitfinex analysts added that if Bitcoin fails to reclaim the $116,000 level soon, optimistic investors may start losing patience.
“Ongoing selling among long-term holders indicates weakening conviction,” the report stated.
November Is Usually Bitcoin’s Strongest Month
Data from CoinGlass shows that since 2013, Bitcoin has averaged 41.78% gains in November. Some analysts still expect history to repeat itself with a strong performance this month.
Crypto investor Dave Weisberger commented that Bitcoin’s fundamentals remain solid.
“The context is VERY constructive compared to previous cycles, and we’re trading below—not above—the range relative to other financial assets,” he said.
Similarly, analyst Carl Runefelt wrote on X (formerly Twitter), “November will soon turn green for Bitcoin. Big green candles are coming.”
Crypto investor AshCrypto also maintained a bullish outlook, saying he remains “optimistic.”
According to CoinMarketCap data, Bitcoin was trading near $103,000 at press time, down nearly 3% in the past 24 hours.
October Crash Still Weighs on Market Sentiment
Bitcoin has struggled to regain momentum since reaching an all-time high of $125,100 in early October. The market crash on October 10 wiped out roughly $19 billion in leveraged positions, shaking investor confidence.
The shock from that liquidation event continues to linger across the market. Heightened caution among investors could prevent Bitcoin from delivering its usual strong performance in November. Until market dynamics and Fed policy direction become clearer, consolidation remains the most likely scenario.
