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Bitcoin Flat at $100K as Volatility Hits Record Lows — Trouble Ahead?
Bitcoin’s $100,000 milestone is no longer a symbol of triumph — it’s a stress test, according to Mike McGlone of Bloomberg Intelligence. In his latest market note, McGlone warns that current market conditions resemble what often happens just before a major correction.
Extreme Complacency in Bitcoin and Stocks
McGlone describes the current environment as one of “extreme complacency.” Stocks remain unusually calm, volatility has fallen to historic lows, and Bitcoin, despite its reputation for wild swings, has shown little price movement.
In his analysis, McGlone compares Bitcoin’s 50-week moving trendline with the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) and the S&P 500’s realized volatility — two indicators that rarely stay this quiet for long. The VIX 50-week average currently sits around 19, and McGlone believes equities could soon “catch up” to that number, suggesting that market turbulence may be closer than traders expect.
Bitcoin’s “Do or Die” Phase
Despite its massive gains earlier in the year, Bitcoin has struggled to stay above $110,000, hovering near $100,000 instead. McGlone calls this the “Do or Die” phase — a moment that could define the next stage of Bitcoin’s long-term trend.
If Bitcoin can hold this level, it could reinforce its role as a key digital asset. But if not, McGlone suggests a potential slide toward its long-term average near $56,000. Historically, every major Bitcoin market cycle cools at this exact point — when hype fades and prices begin to revert to the mean.
Correlation with Wall Street Remains Strong
Adding to the cautionary tone, Bitcoin’s correlation with the S&P 500 remains high, above 0.53. This strong link suggests that the so-called “digital gold” still follows Wall Street’s broader trends.
If stock market volatility returns, Bitcoin’s current calm could quickly disappear — and the next move will reveal whether the $100,000 level is truly a foundation or just another fragile peak.
