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Gold Price Outlook: MCX Gold and Silver Rise as Investors Await US PCE Data
Gold and silver opened the week on a strong note at the Multi Commodity Exchange of India (MCX), with both precious metals tracking gains in international bullion markets. The rally comes ahead of critical US inflation data and a series of speeches from Federal Reserve officials, events that could shape global monetary policy sentiment in the days ahead.
MCX Gold and Silver Open Higher
On Monday morning, MCX gold prices opened 0.50% higher at ₹1,10,402 per 10 grams, compared with Friday’s close of ₹1,09,847. Silver followed suit, with MCX silver price opening 0.63% higher at ₹1,30,658 per kg, up from the previous close of ₹1,29,838.
By 9:10 AM, momentum had strengthened further. Gold was trading higher by ₹677, or 0.62%, at ₹1,10,524 per 10 grams, while silver surged ₹2,371, or 1.83%, to ₹1,32,209 per kg.
Global Bullion Prices Near Record Levels
International bullion prices also edged higher at the start of the week. Spot gold rose 0.1% to $3,688.76 per ounce, while US gold futures for December delivery gained 0.5% to $3,723.70. Silver maintained its upward momentum, with spot silver climbing 0.3% to $43.20 per ounce, hovering close to a 14-year high.
“Gold prices hover near record levels, as investors looked ahead to key US inflation data and comments from several Federal Reserve officials this week for further policy guidance,” noted Jigar Trivedi, Senior Research Analyst at Reliance Securities. He added that the yellow metal continues to draw support from safe-haven demand, persistent geopolitical tensions, and concerns over the economic impact of President Donald Trump’s tariffs. Robust central bank buying and steady ETF inflows have further fueled the rally.
Domestic Factors Lend Support
Beyond international tailwinds, local market dynamics have also contributed to the rise in prices. A weaker Indian rupee and subdued sentiment in domestic equity markets have bolstered investor appetite for gold, traditionally seen as a safe-haven asset in times of volatility.
All Eyes on US Inflation and Fed Policy
Markets are now bracing for the release of the US core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) price index on Friday. Widely regarded as the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, the data is expected to play a critical role in shaping near-term monetary policy decisions.
Last week, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) and signaled the possibility of further easing. Investors are already pricing in two additional 25 bps rate cuts before the end of the year — one in October and another in December.
Historically, gold performs well in low-interest-rate environments, and this year has been no exception. Supported by monetary easing, persistent geopolitical risks, and strong central bank demand, gold has delivered more than 40% returns year-to-date.
Outlook for Gold and Silver Prices
Looking ahead, analysts see further room for upside in both gold and silver. Jigar Trivedi projects that MCX gold October futures could appreciate to ₹1,10,500 per 10 grams, supported by a positive global undertone.
Meanwhile, Rahul Kalantri, VP Commodities at Mehta Equities Ltd, outlined key support and resistance levels. For international gold prices, support lies between $3,655 – $3,635, with resistance at $3,705 – $3,725. Silver, on the other hand, has support at $42.75 – $42.50, and resistance at $43.40 – $43.60.
On the domestic front, MCX gold prices have support at ₹1,09,680 – ₹1,09,380, with resistance at ₹1,10,350 – ₹1,10,600. For silver, support is seen at ₹1,29,450 – ₹1,29,050, while resistance stands at ₹1,30,850 – ₹1,31,600.
The latest surge in gold and silver prices highlights the impact of global economic uncertainties, domestic currency movements, and expectations surrounding US Federal Reserve policy. With inflation data and Fed speeches on the horizon, traders will be watching closely to see if the bullish momentum can be sustained.
As both gold and silver hover near multi-year highs, the coming week promises to be a pivotal one for investors tracking the precious metals market.
