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Bitcoin Traders Brace for NFP Data Amid Rising U.S. Unemployment Fears
Bitcoin remains largely unchanged, hovering around $111,100, as investors await Friday’s U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, a critical indicator that could shape the Federal Reserve’s upcoming interest rate decision. The leading cryptocurrency recovered earlier losses but continues to move sideways as macroeconomic uncertainty weighs on market sentiment.
Weaker Jobs Growth Expected
According to Goldman Sachs, August NFP is expected to show the addition of only 60,000 jobs, below the 75,000 consensus estimate, while the unemployment rate could rise to 4.3%, the highest since 2021. Such a reading would strengthen the case for a 25-basis-point rate cut when the Fed meets on September 17.
Shawn Young, chief analyst at MEXC Research, noted that unless job and wage growth deliver an “unexpected strong upside,” the Fed is likely to continue moving toward easing. He added that markets have already priced in much of Friday’s labor data, but the trajectory beyond September remains uncertain.
Fed’s Balancing Act
The Fed faces mounting pressure as it tries to balance price stability and maximum employment. With core inflation at 3.1% and recent reports showing 85,979 job cuts in August—a 39% jump from July—concerns over slowing U.S. economic growth persist.
Market Scenarios for Bitcoin
Young highlighted three possible outcomes for Friday’s data. A “Goldilocks report” showing moderate job gains and stable unemployment would likely fuel risk-on sentiment, boosting both equities and crypto. A downside surprise could trigger short-term risk-off moves on growth fears before markets recover on expectations of faster Fed easing. On the other hand, a strong upside surprise would likely push yields higher, strengthen the U.S. dollar, and pressure risk assets like Bitcoin in the near term.
For now, Bitcoin continues to mirror equities, with traders bracing for the jobs report to set the tone for September’s market moves.
