Bitwise Forecasts Bitcoin as Top Asset Over Next Decade

Bitwise forecasts Bitcoin’s 28% annual growth over 10 years, highlighting rising institutional demand and ETF impact.

20 August 2025, 16:05 published Updated 20 August 2025, 16:05

Bitcoin’s 28% Annual Growth Forecast: What Investors Need to Know

Bitwise Asset Management projects that Bitcoin will outperform all major asset classes over the next 10 years. In a recent memo previewing its upcoming Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions for Bitcoin, Bitwise forecasts a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 28% with gradually declining volatility. This outlook reflects growing institutional interest in Bitcoin as a core investment.

Growing Institutional Interest in Bitcoin

According to Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise, this new 10-year framework is designed for large investment platforms and professional allocators. Following last year’s launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs and their approval on national account platforms, more institutions now consider Bitcoin an essential part of diversified portfolios.

Hougan points out a notable shift: Bitwise received a dozen requests this year for long-term Bitcoin assumptions, after seeing none between 2017 and 2024. This change signals that Bitcoin is moving beyond being a niche or fringe asset, becoming a mainstream investment choice for many institutions.

Bitcoin’s Returns and Volatility Compared to Traditional Assets

While the full report will provide detailed quantitative analysis, the memo previews Bitcoin’s projected returns, volatility, and correlations relative to traditional asset classes. Bitwise highlights that Bitcoin’s expected performance and risk characteristics compare favorably to stocks, bonds, real estate, and alternative investments.

One key advantage is Bitcoin’s relatively low correlation with major assets. Bitwise defines these correlations as falling between -0.5 and 0.5, which helps investors reduce portfolio risk through diversification. This feature makes Bitcoin particularly attractive as part of a balanced investment strategy.

A New Standard for Digital Asset Forecasts

Bitwise aims to position its long-term assumptions as comparable to the annual capital market outlooks published by large Wall Street firms. These outlooks help guide strategic asset allocations across stocks, bonds, real estate, and alternatives. With the maturation of products like spot Bitcoin ETFs and a growing asset base exceeding $146 billion, Bitwise believes it is now timely to offer similar guidance for digital assets.

Launched in January 2024, spot Bitcoin ETFs have quickly gained traction. Data from The Block shows that on-chain holdings linked to BTC ETFs now represent nearly 7% of Bitcoin’s total supply of 21 million coins.

Corporate Bitcoin Holdings Are Growing

Alongside institutional platforms, public companies have also increased their Bitcoin reserves significantly. For example, Strategy leads corporate Bitcoin treasuries with over 629,000 BTC. Collectively, these firms hold over $80 billion in Bitcoin assets.

Many of these companies have used capital markets—through equity offerings and convertible securities—to finance their Bitcoin purchases. This trend demonstrates growing confidence in Bitcoin as a store of value and a strategic treasury asset.

Upcoming Full Report and Industry Comparisons

Bitwise plans to release the complete Bitcoin Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions report later this week. This report will detail the methodology behind the forecasts and provide direct comparisons with traditional asset class outlooks from major firms like JPMorgan, PIMCO, BlackRock, and Vanguard.

Investors and allocators can expect a thorough analysis that places Bitcoin within a broader portfolio context, helping them make informed decisions as the digital asset class continues to evolve.