Massive China Growth for Nvidia: $15B Boost Expected in Second Half
In the second half of the year, Nvidia might bring in up to $15 billion from China, according to Wall Street analysts at Stifel, Bernstein, and William Blair. For its fiscal year 2026, which concludes in January of next year, this would raise its overall revenue from the area to over $20 billion. Compared to its approximately $17 billion in revenues from China in 2025, that would represent an increase.
Nvidia Gets Green Light to Sell H20 Chips in China
Nvidia’s stock shot to a new high on Tuesday after the company announced that it had secured guarantees from the Trump administration that it would be given licenses to start selling its H20 chips to Chinese consumers again. After hearing the news, Ruben Roy, a Stifel analyst, increased his price estimate for Nvidia from $180 to $202. In a letter to clients on Tuesday, he states that there would probably be a faster pace of H20 intake from Chinese consumers in the second half of the year due to pent-up demand. He predicts that, with its H20 sales in the first quarter, Nvidia’s revenue in China will reach $19.5 billion in 2026.
It is unclear if they can actually get all the way there,
Roy
Trump Meeting Clears Way for Nvidia H20 Chips to Flood Chinese AI Market
Following a meeting with Trump at the White House last week and during Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang‘s second trip to Beijing this year, the chipmaker said that it will be starting to sell H20 chips again.
They still have to actually get licenses granted … then secure purchase orders, then have parts built and shipped.
Bernstein analyst Stacy Rasgon
Nvidia is expected to generate between $10 billion and $15 billion in sales from China in the second half of the year, according to Rasgon. This suggests that the company’s total revenue for the year would range between $15.5 billion and $20.5 billion.
Beyond the revenue/earnings recovery, we are glad to see NVDA able to compete at least somewhat in China as it limits potential for more structural risks. We always saw the H20 ban as unnecessary and, frankly, somewhat nonsensical as performance of the part is already low, and well below already-available Chinese alternatives … a ban would simply hand the AI market in China over to Huawei as well as encourage the growth of local ecosystem alternatives.
Rasgon
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