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Kain Warwick’s $25K Ether Bet Fails Amid Market Volatility
Kain Warwick, a prominent crypto executive, is set to pay $50,000 after a high-stakes bet that Ether (ETH) would hit $25,000 in 2025 fell short. The wager, made in November with Multicoin managing partner Kyle Samani, highlights just how unpredictable Ether’s price movements have been, even for seasoned market participants.
Ether Struggles Amid Market Volatility
Ether (ETH) ended 2025 trading at around $2,980, approximately 13.7% lower than its starting point for the year, according to CoinMarketCap. The decline followed a $19 billion crypto market liquidation on October 10, which briefly pushed ETH down to $2,767 before a gradual recovery.
Warwick, confident in Ether’s rebound, disagreed with Samani’s skepticism and placed a 10:1 odds bet that ETH could reach $25,000 by year-end. Samani recently confirmed Warwick’s loss on X, marking the payout due. Reflecting on the outcome, Warwick admitted his 2026 Ether target had been revised down to a “measly $10,000,” noting humorously that ETH had still gained 50% since their original bet, just not enough for a win.
Analysts’ Predictions Miss the Mark
Warwick’s optimism was mirrored by other industry voices. Weeks before the wager, BitMine chair Tom Lee predicted ETH could reach $10,000–$12,000, while BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes doubled down on a $10,000 target on the same Bankless podcast episode. Despite these bullish calls, Ethereum did not hit these milestones, instead achieving technical and network upgrades in 2025.
Ethereum’s Milestones in 2025
Ethereum rolled out two major upgrades, Pectra in May and Fusaka in December, with the latter bringing the network closer to “near-instant transactions”, according to the Ethereum Foundation. Meanwhile, co-founder Vitalik Buterin emphasized that Ethereum must do more to fulfill its vision of building the world computer, a central infrastructure for a freer, more open internet.
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