Ethereum Price Prediction: How U.S. Election and Fed Decisions Could Boost ETH
Ethereum Price – The question of whether Ethereum (ETH) will break its all-time high of $4,878 by the end of 2024 has become a hot topic of debate among analysts and traders alike. Despite Ethereum’s significant potential, one expert believes the chances are slim due to several factors, including competition from tech stocks and a lack of strong price-driving narratives. However, not all traders agree, with many expecting a bullish turn for ETH in the near future.
The Struggle for a Strong Narrative
Ethereum’s growth has been overshadowed by more appealing tech stocks, says Nick Forster, founder of the crypto derivatives platform Derive and a former Wall Street trader. “Ethereum is currently lacking a strong narrative to propel its price, especially when compared to other assets,” Forster told Cointelegraph. The launch of spot Ether exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in July may have drawn some attention from Wall Street, but this also placed Ether in direct competition with tech stocks that have delivered superior returns.
As of September 2024, Ether has risen just 0.98%, trading at $2,376 according to CoinMarketCap. By contrast, Nvidia stock has surged 122.57%, and Meta Platforms has risen 49.26% over the same period, according to Google Finance data.
Can Ether Reach New Heights?
Forster remains cautious about the likelihood of Ether breaking its all-time high by the end of 2024. He points out that options markets estimate the probability at around 10%, with three major events needing to align for a significant price movement: Donald Trump winning the U.S. presidential election in November, aggressive Federal Reserve rate cuts, and a general increase in global liquidity.
Forster added that these elements create a narrow window of opportunity, emphasizing that while possible, it is “not highly likely.”
Will the Federal Reserve’s Actions Impact Ether?
Some traders argue that a rate cut by the Federal Reserve could spur a rally in Ethereum prices, but Zen, a crypto trader, has warned that even a 50 basis point cut might not be enough to meet market expectations. “The market is adjusting prices for that scenario, so a 25 bps cut could lead to bearish sentiment,” Zen noted in a Sept. 4 post on X (formerly Twitter).
U.S. Election and Ethereum’s Volatility
Despite uncertainties, Forster claims the U.S. election in November could be the single most influential event for Ethereum’s price. “There’s an extra bump of volatility implied around the election, with a potential 10-15% move on that day,” he explained, suggesting traders are preparing for more significant price swings in the near term. Historically, Ethereum’s daily moves have averaged around 2.5-3%, but the market is now anticipating closer to 3.5%.
Relative Strength Index Signals Potential Rally
On a more optimistic note, several traders have pointed to Ethereum’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) as a signal for an upcoming price surge. Titan of Crypto, a pseudonymous trader, highlighted in a Sept. 5 X post that when the RSI is in or near oversold territory on the three-day chart, Ether tends to either rally or experience a short-term pump. Another trader, Yoddha, added they believe Ethereum is “getting ready for five figures” despite its current consolidation phase.
FAQ: Ethereum Price Outlook and Market Drivers
Will Ethereum reach a new all-time high by the end of 2024?
Several analysts, including Nick Forster, believe there’s a slim chance that Ethereum will break its current all-time high of $4,878 by the end of 2024. According to options markets, there’s roughly a 10% probability of this happening, with key events like the U.S. presidential election and Federal Reserve rate cuts potentially influencing the price.
Why is Ethereum struggling to build a strong price narrative?
Ethereum’s lack of a strong price-driving narrative stems from its competition with high-performing tech stocks like Nvidia and Meta Platforms, which have delivered significantly better returns in 2023. As a result, Ethereum is struggling to capture Wall Street attention compared to these lucrative investments.
What impact could the 2024 U.S. election have on Ethereum’s price?
According to Forster, the 2024 U.S. election could be one of the most significant events for Ethereum, possibly leading to increased market volatility. Traders are expecting a potential 10–15% price movement around the election, which could be a major driver for Ethereum’s future performance.
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