Crypto Market’s December Pattern: Big Rallies Only in Bullish Years

A six-year review shows that major cryptocurrencies often rally in December, but these gains occur mainly during bull or recovery phases, while bearish years deliver mixed or negative holiday performance.

Published by Ecem EFE

3 December 2025, 11:23 published Updated 3 December 2025, 11:23

Analyzing 6 Years of December Returns: Bitcoin Strong, Monero Steady

Crypto Market’s December Pattern – A six-year review of December performance across Bitcoin, Ethereum, BNB, Litecoin, and Monero reveals a pattern traders often talk about but rarely inspect closely: the so-called Santa rally. The data confirms that late-year gains do happen — yet they appear far from guaranteed, clustering mainly in bullish and recovery phases rather than arriving every holiday season.

Bitcoin: December Gains Only in Bull or Recovery Cycles

Among the major assets studied, Bitcoin delivered its most dramatic December move in 2020, soaring roughly 48% from about $19,700 to nearly $29,000. It posted another solid performance in 2023, rising around 12% as optimism around spot ETF approvals returned.

Outside of these favorable periods, December was far less cheerful. Bitcoin fell around 5% in 2019, nearly 19% in 2021, about 4% in 2022, and slightly over 3% in 2024.

One trend stands out: Bitcoin’s December strength is tightly linked to broader market momentum. When macro conditions tighten or late-cycle stress builds, the Santa rally disappears. Even around Christmas week, its biggest upswings — particularly in 2020 and 2023 — tended to arrive after the holiday.

Ethereum: Follows Bitcoin’s Trajectory with Key Rallies in 2020 and 2023

Ethereum closely mirrored Bitcoin’s December behavior. In 2020, ETH climbed roughly 21%, rising from about $615 to around $750. It repeated the pattern in 2023, gaining approximately 11% during a broader market recovery fueled by improving sentiment and network activity.

But ETH struggled in bearish or tightening macro environments, dropping around 15% in 2019, 20% in 2021, and about 8% in both 2022 and 2024. The data underscores Ethereum’s sensitivity to liquidity conditions: when risk appetite falls, so does its December performance.

BNB: High-Beta December Moves, From Explosive Rallies to Sharp Drawdowns

Among the five assets, BNB posted some of the most dramatic December rallies. It gained about 19% in 2020, then surged roughly 37% in 2023, jumping from around $228 to $312 amid improving clarity around Binance’s legal situation and rising spot volumes.

Yet its December losses were just as intense. BNB dropped around 13% in 2019, 18% in 2021, and another 18% in 2022 as exchange-related concerns weighed heavily.

BNB’s December track record is unmistakably high-beta: it outperforms sharply when sentiment turns positive but suffers deeply in stress periods.

Litecoin: A Classic High-Beta Holiday Performer

Litecoin delivered standout December strength in 2020, rallying about 42% from roughly $88 to $125. The move tracked Bitcoin’s breakout and coincided with expanding payment support, including PayPal’s crypto integration — solidifying LTC’s “digital silver” narrative during bullish holidays.

Performance weakened in later years, with declines of about 13% in 2019, nearly 30% in 2021, and roughly 12% in 2022. Still, Litecoin managed modest December gains of about 5% in 2023 and an estimated 7% in 2024, suggesting it continues to benefit from late-year risk-on windows.

Monero: Consistently Positive and Surprisingly Resilient

Unlike the more volatile majors, Monero demonstrated steady — even defensive — December performance. It rose around 15% in 2020, added about 9% in 2022 while many cryptocurrencies fell, and gained roughly 10% in 2023, climbing from the mid-$160s into the $180 range.

Monero’s declines in other years were mild compared with other altcoins. Its privacy-driven use case and consistent transactional demand helped it avoid extreme holiday-season swings, making it one of the more reliable December performers in the dataset.

Selective Santa Rallies, Not Seasonal Guarantees

Across 2019–2024, every cryptocurrency examined delivered strong December rallies at least once — often in 2020 and 2023 — but each also recorded notable losses in other years. December strength clearly depends on macro conditions, liquidity cycles, and project-specific narratives.

If the data shows anything, it’s this: while the crypto market can turn festive, Santa only visits when the broader environment allows it.