Bitcoin Price Analysis: Whale Activity Cooling Could Trigger BTC Bounce
Bitcoin is navigating a tricky patch, trading near $96,000, down from $105,800 earlier this week after a 10% drop in just three days. Yet, according to Ki Young Ju from CryptoQuant, the underlying structure supporting BTC remains robust. Ju emphasizes that capital is still flowing into Bitcoin, which he considers the most critical factor for a potential rebound.
Data supports his view: realized capitalization (realized cap) has climbed to $1.12 trillion, marking a record high. Ju explains that this number only rises when new buyers purchase coins at higher prices, meaning that even amid a short-term dip, significant capital continues entering the market. Over the last week alone, estimated inflows range between $2.6–3.1 billion, a figure that historically does not correspond with a full trend breakdown.
OG Whales Are Cooling Off
Ju’s second trigger focuses on long-term holders and OG whale activity. Data from Glassnode shows that long-term holders have moved 24,000–27,000 BTC per day this month on a 30-day average, up from 12,500 BTC/day in July. Crucially, the intensity of massive hourly transfers (1,000–1,400 BTC from 7+ year wallets) is fading. Ju notes that in prior cycles, this cooldown in whale activity often marked the beginning of price stabilization.
Macro Sentiment Could Tip the Scale
Finally, Ju points to the macro environment. Bitcoin’s fall from $114,000 to the mid-$90,000s coincided with dollar strength and rising real yields, which pressured risk assets broadly. Ju argues that if macro sentiment eases even slightly, the combination of ongoing inflows and reduced whale selling could provide Bitcoin with the fuel needed for a rebound without a specific catalyst.
Ju’s analysis suggests that beneath the recent pullback, Bitcoin’s structural supports remain intact. With measurable on-chain inflows, waning whale pressure, and the potential for macro sentiment relief, the stage could be set for BTC to stabilize—and perhaps even recover—sooner than some expect.
