Bitcoin Price Analysis: Resistance Builds as Sellers Regain Control
Bitcoin (BTC) is showing signs of short-term exhaustion as key on-chain indicators point to growing bearish pressure. The latest Supply Quantiles model — a framework that maps cost-basis levels across specific percentiles — signals a potential breakdown in market structure, with BTC trading below critical support thresholds.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is changing hands near $108,772, hovering just above the $108,000 support level. Despite multiple attempts, the cryptocurrency has failed to reclaim the short-term holder cost basis at $113,100, underlining the stress faced by recent buyers in an increasingly uncertain market environment.
According to on-chain data shared by Glassnode, Bitcoin is currently below the 0.85 quantile at $108,600 — a level that historically represents structural support. Losing this threshold has often signaled weakness in market resilienceand, in several past cycles, preceded broader corrective phases.
“Currently, Bitcoin trades not only below the short-term holder cost basis ($113.1k) but is also struggling to stay above the 0.85 quantile at $108.6k. Historically, failure to hold this level has signaled structural market weakness and often preceded deeper corrections toward the 0.75 quantile near $97.5k,”
— Glassnode Insights
If this pattern persists, Bitcoin could retest the 0.75 quantile, located near $97,500, which aligns with the next significant demand zone identified by on-chain analysts.
Supply Quantiles Highlight Structural Fragility
The Supply Quantiles or Spent Supply Distribution (SSD) model segments the Bitcoin supply into percentile-based cost groups — specifically 0.95, 0.85, and 0.75 quantiles.
- The 0.95 quantile captures the top 5% of supply by cost basis, often linked to phases of market euphoria.
- The 0.85 quantile covers about 15% of supply and typically represents a critical mid-range equilibrium.
- The 0.75 quantile indicates deeper capitulation areas where long-term holders begin to accumulate.
Historical data from Glassnode shows that when BTC loses the 0.85 quantile, short-term holders tend to realize losses, leading to a chain reaction of selling pressure. If momentum weakens further, the probability of testing lower cost-basis levels increases, hinting at a continued corrective structure.
Volatility Risk Premium Turns Negative
Another concerning metric comes from the derivatives market. The 1-Month Volatility Risk Premium (VRP) — which measures the difference between implied volatility and realized volatility — has recently turned negative for the first time in four months, according to XBO.com.
A negative VRP means that traders are paying more for options protection than they are earning from it, suggesting that market participants expect greater price swings ahead. The end of this low-volatility phase marks a transition from complacency to reactivity, often leading to sharper market movements.
As noted in a recent analysis by Ainvest, the Bitcoin market’s variance premium is more sensitive to downside risk than traditional assets, making it a leading indicator of shifting sentiment.
“Bitcoin’s macro momentum is showing cracks as volatility conditions shift. This transition from complacency to reactivity suggests that larger swings may be ahead,”
— Glassnode Report, October 2025
As volatility resurfaces, short-gamma positions — typically held by options market makers — may come under pressure. This dynamic tends to amplify spot price movements, reinforcing Bitcoin’s ongoing struggle to regain technical stability above key resistance levels.
