BTC Could Take 100+ Days for Major Breakout, Warns Trader
Bitcoin (BTC) is at a critical juncture, with its next price move hinging on a key volatility indicator, according to trader Tony “The Bull” Severino. In a recent post on X, Severino highlighted that Bitcoin’s price action depends heavily on the Bollinger Bands—a widely used technical tool measuring market volatility.
Recently, Bitcoin’s Bollinger Bands reached record tightness on weekly charts, indicating a period of low volatility that often precedes significant price movement. Analysts are now watching closely for a breakout either above the upper band or below the lower band, which could signal a new trend direction.
Severino cautioned that a decisive breakout might not happen immediately and could take over 100 days based on historical patterns during the current bull market, which began in early 2023. He explained, “BTCUSD has failed to break out above the upper band with strength. According to past local consolidation ranges, it could take as long as 100+ days to get a valid breakout (or breakdown, if BTC dumps instead).” He also warned about the risk of “head fakes”—false breakouts that can mislead traders—especially after Bitcoin’s recent peak above $126,000.
Meanwhile, some analysts suggest Bitcoin may be entering a new phase of “price discovery uptrend.” Market observer Rekt Capital pointed out that previous bull markets typically expect a blow-off top around October. However, he noted that Bitcoin’s price cycles are lengthening, which could mean the current bull run has not yet peaked. “It’s unlikely Bitcoin has already peaked in its Bull Market because that would effectively mean this cycle was one of the shortest of all time,” Rekt Capital said, reinforcing a more optimistic outlook.
As Bitcoin navigates this critical period of volatility and consolidation, traders and analysts will be closely watching the Bollinger Bands for the next major move.
