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Bitcoin Technical Analysis: Hidden Bullish Signals vs. Bearish EMA Crossover
The ongoing Bitcoin rally, shaped by hidden bullish divergence in momentum indicators, now confronts a major test. As of November 22, a 9.38% recovery has materialized, but the price is approaching a heavy supply zone. Between $87,671 and $88,082, approximately $4.83 billion worth of selling pressure sits with 55,567 BTC waiting to be offloaded.
Momentum Indicators Revealed Buyer Strength
Between April and November, Bitcoin price formed a higher low while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) made a lower low. This hidden bullish divergence pattern signals weakening seller strength. A similar setup between April 8 and October 26 previously triggered an 8.53% surge. The current rebound has exceeded that percentage, but a significant threat emerges on the technical chart.
The 100-day exponential moving average (EMA) is about to cross below the 200-day EMA. This bearish crossover typically signals downward pressure lasting for weeks. While momentum supports the upside, the obstacles ahead are equally pronounced.
$88K Level Will Determine the Reversal
All eyes focus on the $88,000 zone, which will test the authenticity of this recovery. Price needs to break above $88,200 and hold that level decisively. This area aligns with both the supply cluster on the heatmap and the 0.5 Fibonacci level from the recent decline.
A daily close above this region activates the $92,600 target. A stronger move requires two conditions simultaneously: price breaking through the $88,000 supply band and the EMA crossover failing to complete. If the crossover happens first, rallies typically get capped and price comes under pressure.
Support Levels Could Prevent Deeper Declines
On the downside, the strongest support lies in the $84,449 to $84,845 band according to the cost basis heatmap. This zone holds approximately $35.38 billion worth of BTC. On the price chart, this level corresponds to around $84,100. Bitcoin has been using this cluster as a protective floor after breaking above it.
As long as this zone holds, deeper downside remains limited. However, if it breaks again, a move toward the $80,000 region could emerge, invalidating the recovery scenario.
Market Balance Hangs on a Fine Line
Bitcoin’s current position rests on a delicate balance between buyer momentum and overhead selling pressure. The area around $95,900 marks where the last major breakdown began. For the rally to reach these levels, both technical indicators must remain supportive and supply zones need to be cleared. Market participants are now closely monitoring developments at the $88,000 level.
