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Is the Traditional Bitcoin Halving Cycle Dead? Experts Say Institutional Flows Are Shaping BTC
Bitcoin [BTC] has rarely appeared more fragile, with analysts calling the end of 2025 the worst fourth quarter on record. The market experienced a sharp leverage wipeout and steep declines from all-time highs, evoking memories of past “crypto winters.” Historically, Bitcoin has followed a predictable four-year cycle: a Halving event, a surge to new highs, and a brutal 70–90% drawdown.
Cathie Wood Challenges the Traditional Bitcoin Cycle
Cathie Wood, CEO and CIO of ARK Invest, believes these long-held rules may no longer apply. Speaking to Fox Business, Wood noted that institutional adoption, particularly via U.S. Spot Bitcoin ETFs, is actively “disrupting” the traditional cycle. According to her, BTC volatility has steadily declined over the past five years, reflecting maturation as an asset and a shift toward a broader risk-on behavior.
A Shift Toward Risk-On Behavior
Wood highlighted that Bitcoin now increasingly moves in correlation with equities and real estate, unlike its historical role as a risk-off asset during crises like the European sovereign debt turmoil and the 2023 U.S. regional banking issues. Yet, she sees encouraging signs, suggesting that the recent volatility may have already bottomed, and institutional inflows could prevent further steep declines.
Analysts and Banks Confirm the Changing Narrative
Other experts echo Wood’s perspective. Bernstein and VanEck’s Matthew Sigel have publicly stated that the traditional 4-year Bitcoin cycle appears broken, replaced by a longer bull cycle supported by sticky institutional buying. Even Standard Chartered revised its forecasts, cutting the 2025 BTC target from $200,000 to $100,000 and delaying its long-term $500,000 prediction to 2030.
As BTC trades near $90,256, its behavior increasingly reflects institutional influence. The era of fast, explosive rallies followed by 75% crashes may be giving way to a new phase where Bitcoin acts more like a risk-on market asset, signaling a structural pivot in the crypto landscape.
