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Bitcoin May Still Follow Historic Four-Year Cycle Despite Institutional Growth, Glassnode Reports
Bitcoin Cycle Analysis – Despite widespread speculation that institutional adoption would disrupt Bitcoin’s traditional patterns, new analysis suggests the world’s largest cryptocurrency may still be tracking its historic four-year halving cycle. This revelation comes as the market debates whether unprecedented corporate treasury adoption has fundamentally altered Bitcoin’s cyclical behavior.
Market Signals Point to Late-Cycle Phase
Blockchain analytics firm Glassnode released compelling evidence that Bitcoin’s current price action mirrors previous cycles, despite the influx of institutional capital. The firm’s Wednesday report highlighted several concerning indicators suggesting the market may be further along than many investors realize.
Long-term holders—those maintaining Bitcoin positions for over 155 days—are engaging in profit-taking behavior “comparable to past euphoric phases,” according to Glassnode. This pattern typically emerges during late-cycle stages, raising questions about Bitcoin’s near-term trajectory.
The cooling sentiment is further evidenced by weakening demand dynamics. Capital inflows into Bitcoin are “showing signs of fatigue,” with spot Bitcoin ETFs recording approximately $975 million in outflows over just four trading days, according to Farside Investors data.
Price Action Reflects Cyclical Patterns
Since reaching its all-time high of $124,128 on August 14, Bitcoin has declined 8.3% to trade around $113,940. This correction aligns with historical precedents, as Glassnode notes the diminished appetite has pushed traders toward riskier volatility bets.
The speculative positioning surge is evident in altcoin markets, where open interest briefly touched a record $60 billion before correcting with a $2.5 billion decline.
If Bitcoin maintains its typical cycle trajectory, peak prices could arrive as early as October, Glassnode suggests. Historical analysis shows the 2018 and 2022 cycles reached their highs just two to three months beyond Bitcoin’s current position relative to cycle lows.
Industry Split on Cycle Validity
The four-year cycle debate has divided crypto experts. Crypto analyst Rekt Capital previously predicted an October peak if Bitcoin follows the 2020 pattern, marking 550 days post-April 2024 halving.
However, skeptics point to structural market changes. Author Jason Williams noted that the top 100 treasury companies now hold nearly 1 million Bitcoin, suggesting fundamental differences in this cycle. BitcoinTreasuries.NET data confirms publicly traded companies hold approximately $112.17 billion in Bitcoin assets.
Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan declared the Bitcoin cycle “dead,” predicting continued growth through 2026 due to diminishing halving impacts and favorable interest rate environments for cryptocurrency assets.
