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Apple Stock Forms Golden Cross: Is a Breakout Past $260 Next?
Apple Stock – Over the past three months, Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) has quietly staged an impressive comeback. The tech giant’s stock has surged over 26%, outpacing many of its peers in the tech sector. While AAPL is still up a modest 11% over the past 12 months, recent developments suggest the rally may be far from over — especially as the company heads into the all-important holiday season.
iPhone 17 Drives Sales — But Is It Enough?
The renewed investor enthusiasm for Apple can be largely attributed to one familiar driver: the iPhone. Since the launch of the iPhone 17 on September 19, Apple has been reporting stronger-than-expected sales, particularly for the base model. Notably, the company did not raise the price on this version, a move that appears to have boosted early adoption.
In addition, a significant portion of Apple’s customer base is reportedly due for an upgrade. Many users still holding on to an iPhone 15 or older model are now making the switch, fueling the sales momentum. However, not everyone is convinced this wave will last. Some analysts believe the initial sales bump may be front-loaded, especially in the U.S., where consumers may have upgraded early to sidestep potential future tariffs.
Apple’s Subtle but Strategic AI Play
Critics of Apple have long pointed out the company’s slow pace in the AI arms race compared to cloud-focused giants like Microsoft, Alphabet, and Meta Platforms, all of which have poured billions into AI infrastructure. But Apple’s more subtle approach may be starting to pay off.
While the iPhone 17 may not silence every skeptic, it introduces several AI-powered features that could appeal to consumers: an enhanced Siri, real-time translation, and advanced image and video editing tools. These on-device AI enhancements could be key to driving holiday season sales, especially among users who value privacy and ease of use.
What’s more, each iPhone sale is more than just hardware — it’s an entry point into Apple’s high-margin Services ecosystem, which includes iCloud, Apple Music, and AppleTV+. More devices in hand mean more subscriptions, and that spells continued revenue growth for Apple beyond the holiday quarter.
The Walled Garden Advantage in AI
One of Apple’s most overlooked strengths in the AI conversation is its commitment to on-device AI, powered by its custom A-series and M-series silicon chips. Unlike competitors building AI in the cloud, Apple is doubling down on keeping AI workloads local — within the secure boundaries of its tightly controlled iOS ecosystem, often referred to as its “walled garden.”
This privacy-first approach could be Apple’s secret weapon. At a time when consumers and regulators alike are growing increasingly wary of cloud-based data collection, Apple’s device-level AI processing offers a compelling alternative.
According to Bloomberg Intelligence, the market for on-device AI could be worth $143 billion by 2034, suggesting Apple’s strategy may not just be unique — it could be extremely lucrative.
Technical Momentum Points to More Upside
From a technical standpoint, AAPL stock appears poised for continued gains. On September 26, the stock closed at $253.44, confirming a Golden Cross pattern, with the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) crossing above the 200-day SMA. This bullish chart signal has historically preceded upward momentum, and early price action is following suit.
However, there are signs of caution. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering around 68, approaching overbought territory. Analysts warn that resistance near $260 could lead to short-term profit-taking or consolidation, especially ahead of Apple’s October 30 earnings report.
If the stock pulls back, $229, near the 50-day SMA, could serve as a critical support level. Maintaining strength above that zone would validate the recent breakout and pave the way for AAPL to test its 52-week high of around $260 — or potentially move higher.
Analysts See More Room to Run
Many Wall Street analysts are growing increasingly bullish. Among them, Dan Ives of Wedbush stands out as the most optimistic, raising his price target for AAPL from $270 to $310. While not all analysts are as aggressive, the consensus is generally positive, buoyed by strong fundamentals, upcoming earnings, and Apple’s expanding AI narrative.
Still, not everyone is convinced. A recent MarketBeat report noted that while Apple holds a Moderate Buy rating, the company didn’t make the cut in the list of five top stock picks currently favored by top-rated analysts.
A Familiar Story With New Dimensions
For Apple, the narrative remains familiar — it’s about the iPhone. But as AI becomes more integrated into devices, Apple’s privacy-first, on-device AI strategy and seamless ecosystem integration could provide an edge over its competitors in the long run. Whether that translates into sustained stock growth will depend on consumer response during the holiday season and how convincingly Apple can deliver on its evolving tech ambitions.
