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Bitcoin Price Forecast: Liquidity, Futures, and Price Outlook
Bitcoin Price Forecast – Bitcoin (BTC) is once again capturing the spotlight. Despite a modest dip of 1.73% over the past 24 hours, bringing the price down to $116,000, market sentiment is turning increasingly bullish — and a major macro signal may be pointing to a massive rally ahead.
Rising M2 Money Supply Signals Potential Bitcoin Boom
One of the most compelling narratives driving Bitcoin’s outlook is the global rise in the M2 money supply. M2, a key measure of global liquidity that tracks cash, savings, and short-term deposits, is now climbing past $112 trillion, according to data from CryptoRank.
Historically, Bitcoin has followed M2 with a 10-week lag, and this current alignment is raising eyebrows. If the trend holds, analysts suggest that BTC could hit $200,000 by September. This isn’t the first time Bitcoin has mirrored M2; a similar pattern fueled its rally in early 2024, marking the beginning of the previous bull cycle.
More liquidity often means more capital chasing scarce assets like Bitcoin, and traders are watching M2 closely as a key macro driver.
On-Chain Metrics Show Strong Holder Confidence
Bitcoin’s on-chain behavior adds more weight to the bullish case. The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR), which measures whether coins are sold at a profit or loss, is holding steady above 1.0 — currently sitting at around 1.02.
This suggests that most of the BTC being sold is still generating profit, not panic-driven exits. It’s typical behavior seen during early bull markets, when holders are confident but not yet euphoric. Simply put, investors are sitting on gains and waiting for higher prices.
This is a key signal for analysts. When SOPR remains above 1, it means the market is still in profit-taking mode, not loss-cutting — which supports the idea of continued upward momentum.
Futures Market Heats Up: Traders Bet Big on Bitcoin
The derivatives market is also aligning with the bullish tone. Bitcoin open interest has surged to $84.2 billion, the highest in recent weeks, indicating more money flowing into BTC futures.
Meanwhile, funding rates remain positive. On July 24, the BTC funding rate was recorded at +0.0119%, according to Coinglass, reflecting strong demand for long positions. While this doesn’t indicate extreme leverage, it does suggest that traders are confidently building bullish exposure, supported by real liquidity rather than pure hype.
Importantly, this is happening during a time when M2 is expanding — hinting that traders aren’t just speculating but positioning based on macro fundamentals.
Stablecoin Reserves Signal Spot Buying Power
In the spot market, stablecoin reserves on exchanges are holding steady at around $47 billion. This matters because stablecoins like USDT and USDC are often used to buy crypto assets.
A high reserve means there’s plenty of dry powder waiting to enter the market. Historically, these reserve buildups occur before major buying activity, especially during periods of expanding liquidity like the current M2 surge.
Adding to this, more Bitcoin is flowing out of exchanges than in. That’s a classic bullish signal, as it often means investors are moving coins to cold storage, preparing to hold long-term — not sell.
Technical Charting Hints at $200K Target
From a technical standpoint, the Fibonacci extension tool is pointing to a long-term target near $200,000. Specifically, the 3.618 Fibonacci level, a common marker in major uptrends, aligns closely with this price zone.
With BTC already holding above $116,000, the chart setup suggests that the stage is being set for a potential breakout — especially if liquidity continues to rise and trader confidence remains high.
Bitcoin’s current price action may seem calm on the surface, but under the hood, macro liquidity, strong on-chain metrics, and bullish trader behavior are building a compelling case for further gains.
With M2 rising, profit-taking without panic, futures markets heating up, and spot reserves ready to deploy, the path to $200,000 is gaining credibility.
While volatility is always part of the crypto landscape, the momentum right now appears to be in favor of the bulls.
