Dow Jones and Nasdaq Rise on Trump’s $4.5T Tax Plan Hopes

Wall Street eyes new records as trade optimism rises and Trump’s $4.5T tax cut plan shakes up markets—will the rally last or crack under pressure?

Published by Ecem EFE

30 June 2025, 18:35 published Updated 30 June 2025, 18:36

Dow Jones and Nasdaq – Wall Street Eyes New Records as Tariff Deals Near

Dow Jones and Nasdaq – U.S. stocks broke into positive territory on Monday, fueled by optimism over trade negotiations and renewed confidence in potential tax reforms—offering a hopeful end to a tumultuous first half of 2025.

Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq Climb

By market open:

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose approximately 0.5%.
The S&P 500 gained about 0.3%.
The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite jumped roughly 0.4%.

This surge came amid signs that President Trump’s sweeping tariffs may be nearing resolution with major trading partners, including China. Investors are increasingly hopeful that long-standing trade tensions are moving toward a deal.

Trump’s $4.5 Trillion Tax Cut Package Sparks Debate

Meanwhile, the Trump administration’s proposed $4.5 trillion tax cut package remains under intense scrutiny in the Senate. Republican leaders are lobbying party holdouts, seeking enough votes to advance the bill. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) warns the proposal could add roughly $3.3 trillion to the deficit over ten years.

Lawmakers are currently reviewing dozens of amendments, with a key vote expected on Monday—a critical moment that could shift market sentiment.

Market Eyes Thursday’s Jobs Report

All eyes are also on the upcoming June U.S. jobs report, due on Thursday. This crucial data release may influence whether the Federal Reserve moves forward with its anticipated interest rate cuts. With recent speculation favoring a rate cut, this week’s report could reinforce or derail that momentum.

Shortened Week Ahead for Independence Day

Investors should note a shortened trading week ahead: U.S. markets will close at 1 p.m. ET on Thursday, and remain shut all day Friday for July 4th, the Independence Day holiday. This early close could reduce liquidity, potentially increasing volatility, especially with a week full of high-impact events.

Mid-Year Momentum Builds for Tech & Energy Sectors

Despite the historical turbulence—driven by inflation, monetary policy tightening, and geopolitical tensions—the second half of the year is showing signs of renewed investor confidence. The early-week gains in technology and energy stocks suggest markets might breach new all-time highs.

Summary: Renewed Optimism, Cautious Outlook

Following the chaos of 2025’s first half, U.S. markets are breathing a sigh of relief. Renewed optimism around trade agreements and tax reform is fueling stock gains. However, Senate action on the tax plan, along with Thursday’s jobs report, will ultimately shape market direction. As we head into a holiday-shortened week, cautious optimism remains the tone.

Uncertainty Remains Despite Upward Momentum

Despite the recent rally, market analysts warn that volatility may return swiftly if ongoing political and economic risks escalate. Investors are particularly cautious about the Senate’s final stance on Trump’s proposed $4.5 trillion tax cut, which remains a major point of contention within the Republican party. Should the bill pass, economists expect short-term economic stimulus, but long-term budgetary concerns could trigger instability in the bond market and broader fiscal policy debates.

Meanwhile, optimism around trade negotiations has lifted sentiment. Reports suggest that significant progress has been made with China and the European Union, with potential rollbacks on key tariffs under discussion. Such developments could dramatically reduce pressure on global supply chains and enhance corporate earnings in the second half of 2025.

Still, with the June jobs report set for release on Thursday and the markets closing early ahead of Independence Day, trading volumes are expected to dip. Thin liquidity can often amplify market reactions to surprise data, making the remainder of the week crucial for traders and investors alike.

As Wall Street hovers near all-time highs, many are now watching whether this bullish trend can withstand the political and economic crosswinds expected in the coming months.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Cryptocurrencies and stocks, particularly in micro-cap companies, are subject to significant volatility and risk. Please conduct thorough research before making any investment decisions.