Trump vs Harris – Polymarket Bets Hit $1 Billion: Trump vs. Harris Election Race Tightens
Trump vs Harris – Prediction markets have been heating up, with over $1 billion traded on Polymarket’s Trump vs. Harris market. As the race tightens, bettors are also weighing in on the longevity of Bitcoin’s recent price surge and the chances of Black Myth: Wukong winning Game of the Year.
$1 Billion Traded in Trump vs. Harris Market on Polymarket
Polymarket has seen a significant surge in bets on the upcoming U.S. presidential election, with Donald Trump and Kamala Harris as the key contenders. Over $1 billion has been wagered on the outcome, with Harris maintaining a slim lead of just one point. However, bettors on Polymarket are keeping a close eye on swing states, which could ultimately decide the election.
According to Polymarket data, Harris is expected to win four out of six critical swing states, historically leaning Democrat. These include Pennsylvania and Michigan, both of which have traditionally favored Democratic candidates in recent elections, with the exception of the 2016 surprise win for Trump. Wisconsin, considered a crucial battleground, remains highly competitive. A New York Times/Siena College poll shows Harris narrowly leading with 49% compared to Trump’s 47%.
Polymarket currently prices Harris at 56 cents per share in Wisconsin, giving her a 56% chance of winning the state. Each share pays out $1 in USDC (a cryptocurrency pegged to the U.S. dollar) if the candidate wins. While the polls suggest a tight race, historical polling inaccuracies in Wisconsin raise questions about the reliability of these predictions. Will the prediction markets outperform traditional pollsters?
Bitcoin Rally Faces Market Skepticism
Despite bullish signals from institutional investors and favorable macroeconomic factors like the Federal Reserve’s rate cuts and liquidity injections by the People’s Bank of China, Polymarket traders remain doubtful about Bitcoin’s short-term prospects. Currently, the market only gives Bitcoin a 41% chance of trading above $65,000 by October 4, despite growing optimism in the options market.
Options traders have been heavily purchasing call options priced at $75,000, signaling bullish sentiment, while put options (which indicate bearish hedging) are on the decline. However, Polymarket traders seem to think that Bitcoin might be entering “overbought” territory, especially given the upcoming U.S. ISM Manufacturing data, which could trigger a price correction if it indicates weak economic conditions.
Meanwhile, traders on Kalshi, a U.S.-regulated prediction market, are more optimistic, giving Bitcoin a 47% chance of ending the year above $75,000 and a 58% chance of crossing its previous all-time high of $73,200.
Black Myth: Wukong’s Game of the Year Odds
In the gaming world, the success of Black Myth: Wukong has been a major win for China’s gaming industry, especially after facing heavy regulation from Beijing. The game, inspired by the classic Chinese novel Journey to the West, has captivated global audiences, selling over 4.5 million copies in China in its first week alone. On the international stage, it has found success on Steam, with nearly 250,000 concurrent players, making it the fifth most popular game on the platform.
Despite its success, bettors on Kalshi are skeptical about its chances of winning Game of the Year at the 2024 Game Awards. The market currently gives Black Myth: Wukong only a 23% chance, with most of the betting favoring Astro Bot, which has garnered a 64% chance of taking the title. Although Astro Bot has received rave reviews, Black Myth: Wukong’s cultural impact and innovation might give it an edge that bettors are underestimating.
The resurgence of China’s gaming industry, after being nearly crippled by strict government regulations, makes Black Myth: Wukong a standout title. Beijing’s crackdown in 2021 had stalled the growth of the industry by freezing new game licenses, but a thaw in 2022 allowed for a more regulated yet rejuvenated market. This environment fostered the development of Black Myth: Wukong, a game that moves away from the industry’s reliance on freemium titles and focuses on storytelling and gameplay.
A Week of High-Stakes Predictions
With over $1 billion wagered on the U.S. presidential election, traders are closely watching both Trump and Harris, particularly in swing states like Wisconsin. Meanwhile, the crypto community remains divided on Bitcoin’s near-term prospects, with some calling for a rally while others predict a pullback. And in the gaming industry, Black Myth: Wukong has emerged as a surprise hit, though its chances of winning Game of the Year remain slim according to prediction markets.
As the weeks progress, these markets will provide valuable insights into the future of politics, cryptocurrency, and gaming. Keep an eye on these trends as we approach major milestones in all three sectors.
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