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O’Leary Skeptical of December Rate Cut
American entrepreneur and investor Kevin O’Leary has voiced skepticism over the market’s expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in December. Known for his role on Shark Tank, O’Leary emphasized in a recent interview that he does not anticipate a reduction and is not adjusting his investment strategy based on such an outcome.
“I don’t actually think the Fed’s gonna cut in December,” O’Leary said. “I’m not investing that way. I’m not investing as if the Fed is going to cut rates. So I just don’t see it.”
Bitcoin Likely to Remain in a Narrow Range
O’Leary added that any potential rate decision would have limited impact on Bitcoin prices. “I think it’s going to sort of drift within 5% of where it is now, in either direction,” he stated, suggesting that he sees no major catalyst for significant movement.
His view contrasts sharply with current market expectations. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a December rate cut is currently 88.1%, up from 33% in late November.
Inflation Pressures and Fed Mandate
O’Leary pointed to persistent inflation as a key factor likely influencing the Fed to maintain current rates. U.S. annual inflation rose to 3% in September, marking the highest level since January, according to government data.
“It’s a dual mandate, full employment and inflation,” O’Leary explained. “And so the tariffs are starting to take hold and input costs.”
Recent Rate-Cut Fluctuations
Market expectations have shifted significantly over the past weeks. On Nov. 19, the likelihood of a rate cut fell from 67%earlier in the month to 33%, before rebounding after New York Fed President John Williams suggested on Nov. 21 that the Fed could cut rates “in the near term” without harming inflation progress. Bloomberg analyst Joe Weisenthal noted that Williams’ comments drove the subsequent rise in rate-cut expectations.
The Fed implemented two consecutive rate cuts earlier this year—one in September and another in November—further fueling speculation about continued easing through the end of 2025.
December Fed Meeting Looms
Despite market fluctuations, O’Leary maintains that Bitcoin will remain largely unaffected. “I don’t see it negatively affecting Bitcoin,” he said, dismissing concerns that an unexpected hold on rates could destabilize cryptocurrency markets. The Fed’s December meeting will occur amid ongoing debate over the central bank’s dual mandate of price stability and full employment.
