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BTC On-Chain Data Signals Rising Risk of Sub-$90K Move
Bitcoin failed to reclaim the $102,000 level marked by its 365-day moving average this week, triggering alarm bells among technical analysts. This critical support level, which has acted as a structural floor since late 2023, has now flipped to resistance in a pattern reminiscent of December 2021’s bear market onset. On-chain data and ETF flows suggest the risk of Bitcoin dropping below $90,000 is increasing.
Why the 365-Day Average Matters So Much
The 365-day moving average serves as a structural foundation for Bitcoin. Staying above this level is widely considered a strong indicator that the uptrend remains intact. However, Bitcoin’s performance this week has revived the December 2021 scenario.
During that period, similar rejections at this level marked the beginning of the 2022 bear market. Historical data shows that remaining below this line for several weekly closes triggers deeper retracements. This suggests a sustained breakdown increases the probability of a move toward sub-$90,000 territory.
Current market conditions point to a mid-cycle reset rather than a complete macro top. Liquidity conditions remain unstable while ETF flows have turned negative. Long-term holders are distributing at the fastest pace since early 2024, adding pressure to the market structure.
On-Chain Data Signals Rising Pressure
The realized price for Bitcoin holders who entered between 6 and 12 months ago sits near $94,600. This group accumulated heavily during the ETF-driven rally, and their cost basis often acts as a first capitulation zone during bull markets.
On Friday, Bitcoin briefly traded below this threshold, pushing many of these holders into unrealized losses. Similar breaks occurred in both 2017-2018 and 2021-2022. Each period experienced prolonged declines after price slipped below the 6-12 month cost-basis band.
This trend indicates rising pressure on recent buyers and increases the likelihood of a deeper reset. Long-range cycle data provides additional context, showing Bitcoin’s bull cycles feature recurring mid-cycle corrections of 25% to 40%.
Using the 2025 peak near $125,000, a typical pullback would place Bitcoin between $75,000 and $93,000. These drawdown levels align closely with current technical and on-chain support floors, creating a confluence of key zones.
Which Price Levels Are Critical?
The first support sits at $92,000 to $95,000, matching the 6-12 month cost basis and recent ETF inflow levels. This area will likely serve as the first reaction point. However, a stronger correction could push Bitcoin into the $85,000 to $90,000 band.
This range aligns with a standard 25%-30% mid-cycle decline and represents a zone where historical corrections have found support. The bearish scenario extends deeper into more significant territory.
If ETF outflows accelerate and macro conditions worsen, Bitcoin could retest the $75,000 to $82,000 zone. This would represent a 35%-40% drawdown from the cycle high and match previous mid-cycle resets observed in past bull markets.
Drops below $70,000 remain unlikely without a major liquidity shock or fundamental breakdown. The current structure doesn’t suggest such extreme scenarios are imminent based on available data.
What Comes Next for Bitcoin?
Despite recent weakness, Bitcoin hasn’t displayed a blow-off top or structural exhaustion pattern. This suggests current moves form part of broader consolidation within the bull market rather than the start of a multi-year downtrend.
Bitcoin’s ability to reclaim the 365-day moving average will determine the depth of the correction. A quick recovery would ease selling pressure and reduce the likelihood of a move under $90,000. However, continued weakness could see the market test progressively lower support levels.
The coming weeks will be critical as Bitcoin navigates this technically significant zone. Market participants should monitor both the 365-day moving average and the key on-chain cost-basis levels for signals about the correction’s potential depth and duration.
