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JP Morgan Sees Multi-Year Upside for Gold Prices
Gold continues to capture market attention in 2025, with JP Morgan analysts maintaining a bullish perspective on the metal despite recent price fluctuations. According to a note published Thursday, the bank expects gold prices to reach an average of $5,055 per ounce by the fourth quarter of 2026.
Demand-Driven Forecast
The projection is based on assumptions around investor demand and central bank buying, which JP Morgan estimates will average approximately 566 tons per quarter in 2026. The bank emphasized that “Gold remains our highest conviction long for the year, and we see further upside as the market enters a Fed rate-cutting cycle,” according to Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Strategy at JP Morgan.
Gregory Shearer, Head of Base & Precious Metals Strategy, elaborated on the factors supporting gold’s upward momentum. He noted that the combination of “a Fed cutting cycle with overlays of stagflation anxiety, concerns around Fed independence, and broader debasement hedging” provides a structural backdrop for further gains.
Gold Amid Dollar Dynamics
JP Morgan analysts also addressed the U.S. dollar’s performance, observing that recent shifts are “not a de-dollarization or not a debasement story, but it is most likely a dollar diversification story.” The bank highlighted that foreign holders of U.S. assets are gradually redirecting small allocations into gold, a trend that underscores the metal’s role in diversified portfolios.
Healthy Market Consolidation
Recent price consolidation in the gold market has been described as healthy by JP Morgan experts. Kaneva explained that the pullback “reflects the market digesting the rapid price gains since August.” She added, “It’s normal if you’re paralyzed with fear, because the price moved so fast … It’s just a very clean story – you have a lot of buyers, and you have no sellers.”
This perspective frames short-term volatility as part of a larger, orderly market process rather than an indicator of underlying weakness. Analysts suggest that consolidation periods allow the market to absorb previous gains and prepare for potential long-term trends.
Record-High Performance in 2025
Spot gold has experienced several record highs this year, with the most recent peak reaching $4,381.21 on Monday. This milestone represents a year-to-date gain of nearly 57%, positioning gold for its strongest annual performance since 1979. The combination of investor interest, macroeconomic uncertainties, and central bank purchases has contributed to this remarkable upward trajectory.
JP Morgan emphasizes that gold’s gains this year are part of a multi-year story rather than a short-term spike. Kaneva reiterated a long-term target of $6,000 per ounce by 2028, highlighting the importance of viewing the metal within a broader temporal horizon.
Factors Supporting Gold’s Momentum
Several macroeconomic and strategic factors underlie JP Morgan’s positive outlook:
- Federal Reserve Rate Cuts: Analysts anticipate a potential easing cycle that historically tends to favor precious metals.
- Stagflation Concerns: The combination of stagnant growth and inflationary pressures often increases demand for gold as a hedge.
- Market Uncertainty: Questions regarding central bank independence and currency debasement drive investor interest in tangible assets.
- Diversification Trends: International investors are gradually shifting small allocations from U.S. assets to gold, reinforcing its safe-haven appeal.
Shearer noted that these elements collectively create a supportive environment for gold, offering structural rather than speculative momentum.
Long-Term Perspective
JP Morgan’s analysis underscores the importance of a multi-year view when assessing gold’s potential. While short-term fluctuations may occur, the bank highlights that long-term fundamentals—such as consistent demand from both investors and central banks—remain robust. Kaneva emphasized, “Gold should be viewed on a multi-year horizon,” framing the metal as a strategic asset rather than a short-term trading vehicle.
Gold’s performance in 2025 has been extraordinary, achieving record highs and substantial year-to-date gains. JP Morgan analysts maintain a bullish long-term outlook, underpinned by demand assumptions, macroeconomic factors, and broader market dynamics. Consolidation phases are seen as healthy corrections rather than a signal of weakness, and multi-year projections suggest that gold could continue to play a significant role in global markets in the coming years.
