A New Kind of Cycle May Be Ahead for Bitcoin
According to on-chain analyst Willy Woo, the next crypto bear market may not follow the familiar Bitcoin halving or monetary supply cycles. Instead, he warns it could be triggered by a traditional business cycle downturn—a force that has never impacted crypto markets directly before.
“The next bear market will be defined by another cycle people forget about,” Woo said on Monday, adding that this time it may resemble past macroeconomic recessions rather than crypto-native patterns.
Why This Cycle Could Be Different
Historically, Woo noted, Bitcoin’s market movements have overlapped with two main cycles: the four-year halving cycle and changes in the global M2 money supply.
“Central banks inject M2 debasement in four-year cycles [and] both superimpose,” Woo explained.
But Woo argues that crypto markets don’t operate in isolation, and a broader economic recession—like those seen in 2001 (dot-com crash) or 2008 (global financial crisis)—could redefine how Bitcoin behaves. These downturns brought sharp contractions in GDP, surging unemployment, and massive equity losses.
“If we get a biz cycle downturn like 2001 or 2008, it will test how BTC trades. Will it drop like tech stocks or will it drop like gold?” he asked.
Recession Risk Remains, Despite No Immediate Threat
The U.S. economy isn’t currently in a recession, but trade tariffs and slowing growth in 2025 have added risk heading into 2026.
The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) monitors indicators like employment, income, and industrial production—none of which currently confirm a recession. However, Woo believes that markets are already pricing in future macro trends.
“Either BTC is saying to the global markets the top is in, or BTC is going to catch up,” he concluded.
