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Bitcoin Enters Q4 With Strong Momentum—Will History Repeat?
Q4 Historically Boosts Bitcoin – Despite doubts over whether Bitcoin’s historic four-year cycle still holds true, industry leaders say the concept isn’t dead—just different. Speaking at Token2049 in Singapore, Gemini’s APAC head Saad Ahmed shared his view that some version of the cycle is likely to remain.
Cycles Driven by Emotion and Momentum
“When it comes to the four-year cycle, the reality is that it’s very likely that we’ll continue to see some form of a cycle,” said Ahmed in an interview with Cointelegraph. He attributed the recurring nature of crypto cycles to human emotion—ranging from exuberance to panic. “People get really excited and overextend themselves, and then you see a crash, and then it kind of corrects to an equilibrium,” he explained.
While acknowledging ongoing volatility, Ahmed pointed to growing institutional involvement as a factor that could temper market swings. “You’ll see some of the volatility flag off, but you’ll still see some sort of a cycle,” he added.
October Could Be a Cycle Peak, Says Analyst
Debate around Bitcoin’s current market behavior has intensified. On August 21, Glassnode suggested that Bitcoin may still be following its traditional halving-driven cycle, even as it adapts.
Crypto analyst Rekt Capital believes that October could mark the cycle peak, if patterns from past cycles continue. He noted that the current market is approximately 550 days out from the April 2024 halving, mirroring timing seen in 2020.
A Strong Q4 Historically for Bitcoin
With Q4 now underway, Bitcoin is entering what has been its strongest quarter since 2013, with an average return of 79.39%, according to CoinGlass. Over the past week, Bitcoin surged 11.5%, reaching $123,850—just shy of its all-time high of $124,100 from August 14.
Still, not everyone expects history to repeat. Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan said back in July that Bitcoin may break from the traditional pattern, but remains optimistic: “I bet 2026 is an up year… I broadly think we’re in for a good few years.”
