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Apple Stock Could Hit $298 as iPhone 17 Launch Exceeds Expectations
Apple Stock – After a shaky start to the year, Apple Inc. (AAPL) has staged a noteworthy rebound, fueled in part by the surprisingly strong demand for its latest smartphone — the iPhone 17. With Wall Street now revisiting its expectations for Apple’s near-term future, Morgan Stanley analysts, led by Erik Woodring, have revised their outlook upward, citing a healthier-than-expected interest in Apple’s newest hardware.
The investment bank now anticipates iPhone revenue for fiscal 2026 to reach $230.3 billion, a 4% increase over previous projections and notably above the consensus estimate of $220 billion. While higher average selling prices (ASPs) contributed to the bump, the real driver appears to be a renewed confidence in unit sales.
A “Compelling Upgrade” for iPhone Users
Morgan Stanley’s note underscores that the base iPhone 17 model is proving to be a “compelling upgrade option” for users with older devices. Positioned as a capable yet relatively affordable offering, it’s appealing to a segment of Apple’s user base that may have sat out previous upgrade cycles.
Backing this up are lengthening lead times — a signal that initial demand is stronger than it was for last year’s model. While Apple’s stock has already surged around 20% in the past three months, reflecting some of this early enthusiasm, analysts believe that more upside is still possible — albeit with a higher bar to clear going forward.
Stock Outlook Raised, But Conservative Assumptions Remain
In response to the momentum, Morgan Stanley has increased its price target for AAPL to $298, while noting that their current forecast for 243 million iPhone shipments in fiscal 2026 may actually understate future performance.
“We are assuming replacement cycles still extend with the iPhone 17, which feels conservative,” the analysts wrote, suggesting that consumer behavior may outpace these cautious expectations. For now, the upgrade cycle is doing the heavy lifting, but next year’s product lineup could take things to another level entirely.
iPhone 18 Cycle: Foldables and AI Could Be Game-Changers
Looking ahead to 2026 and into 2027, the iPhone roadmap appears even more ambitious. Morgan Stanley notes that Apple is potentially preparing to launch its first foldable iPhone, alongside six new models in the iPhone 18 cycle.
These developments could attract a fresh wave of consumer interest, particularly if Apple begins to integrate artificial intelligence (AI) features that encourage upgrades. The analysts project high-single-digit iPhone revenue growth for fiscal 2027, even without factoring in AI — hinting at even greater upside if those capabilities do materialize.
Bull Case: $376 Price Target and 270M iPhone Units
In their most optimistic scenario, Morgan Stanley sees Apple stock climbing to $376 by fiscal year 2027. For this to happen, Apple would need to ship 270 million iPhones and exceed $10 in earnings per share — milestones they believe are “achievable” if AI and foldables drive stronger-than-expected demand.
Importantly, the market could begin to “price in these opportunities more materially” by early next year, setting the stage for Apple’s long-term growth narrative to dominate headlines.
As Apple kicks off fiscal 2026, all eyes are on the performance of the iPhone 17 and how it sets the tone for the company’s next big hardware cycle. With Morgan Stanley upping its estimates, increasing its price target, and highlighting the potential of foldables and AI, the narrative is clear: Apple may be entering a new iPhone supercycle.
While much depends on how consumer upgrade behavior evolves and whether the company can deliver on innovation, the groundwork is being laid for what could be another transformative era for the tech giant.
