AVAX Price Holds Key Support as Elliott Wave Count Develops
Avalanche (AVAX) is holding steady around $28.69, and traders are closely watching for the next major move. According to crypto analyst Degencoder, AVAX could be nearing the end of Wave (4) in a classic Elliott Wave five-wave pattern, potentially setting up for a bullish Wave (5) targeting the $45–$50 range.
Classic Elliott Wave Pattern in Play
Degencoder shared the setup on X (formerly Twitter), suggesting the current consolidation in the $28–$29 zone might be the base for the next upward leg. If this plays out, Wave (5) could drive AVAX into the $47–$48 trendline region, a key resistance level from earlier market cycles.
The Elliott Wave structure follows a recognizable rhythm:
- Wave (1) starts the move,
- Wave (2) dips,
- Wave (3) surges,
- Wave (4) pauses or retraces,
- Wave (5) completes the trend.
AVAX’s current price structure has been forming a series of higher highs and higher lows since the summer—a technical pattern often associated with bullish momentum and sustained upward trends. This formation typically reflects increasing investor confidence, where buyers consistently step in at higher price levels, preventing deeper retracements and signaling underlying strength in the asset. For many traders, this kind of setup supports a continuation of the uptrend, especially when backed by healthy volume and favorable market sentiment.
However, this constructive structure is now facing a key test. If AVAX fails to hold the $28 support level, it would mark the first significant breakdown of this upward pattern. Such a move could introduce uncertainty and hesitation among bullish traders, as it would signal that buyers are no longer defending key levels as aggressively as before.
More importantly, a clean break below the $25 mark would carry greater implications. Not only would it undermine the recent bullish setup, but it would also invalidate the current Elliott Wave count, which many analysts believe is entering the final leg (Wave 5) of an upward cycle. If this count is proven incorrect due to a breakdown, the narrative could quickly shift from one of continuation to correction and consolidation.
In that case, the downside risk expands notably. Key support zones to watch in the event of further decline include $23, followed by the psychological $20 level, and in a more severe bearish scenario, $15 could re-enter the conversation. Such a sharp correction would reset expectations and likely extend the consolidation period before any meaningful recovery could occur.
Key Levels and Market Patience
In order to confirm a continued bullish trend, Avalanche (AVAX) must decisively close above the $31–$32 resistance range on either the daily or weekly timeframes. This zone has emerged as a key level in recent price action, acting as both psychological resistance and a structural ceiling for price movement during the current consolidation phase. A breakout above this level would not only indicate renewed strength among buyers but would also provide technical confirmation that Wave (4) of the Elliott Wave cycle has likely come to an end.
Such a breakout would shift market sentiment and open the door for the beginning of Wave (5)—typically the final leg in a classic five-wave Elliott pattern. Wave (5) is often driven by renewed momentum and increased participation from both retail and institutional investors, especially if broader market conditions are supportive.
Once AVAX manages a clean and sustained close above $31–$32, attention would then turn to the next cluster of resistance levels. The first notable barrier lies between $34 and $36, a region that previously acted as both support and resistance during earlier phases of the trend. A successful breach of this zone would further validate bullish momentum and likely trigger increased trading volume.
Beyond that, the $40 level comes into focus. As a round number and historical reaction zone, it holds psychological significance for many market participants. If AVAX can conquer this area with conviction, the path would be cleared to challenge the projected target range of $45–$50, which aligns with the expected completion of Wave (5) and represents a key technical milestone in the broader bullish scenario.
