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Altcoin Rally Unlikely Until Q4, According to Benjamin Cowen
Crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen has outlined three essential conditions for a true altcoin season to emerge — similar to those seen in late 2017 and 2021. According to Cowen, the most critical trigger is Ethereum breaking its all-time high (ATH) and holding above it for a sustained period.
Ethereum Must Lead the Charge
Cowen argues that Ethereum plays a central role in initiating an altcoin season. He suggests that current market sentiment is overly optimistic, noting that Ethereum has yet to establish a strong breakout above its previous highs. While he sees a potential move past $5,000, he emphasizes the need for a pullback to the 21-week EMA for long-term momentum to build.
“Ethereum needs to not only break its ATH but stay above it in a sustained rally,” Cowen stated.
Bitcoin Dominance Still Too Strong
A second key factor is a decline in Bitcoin dominance. Cowen highlights that October, historically, has seen an average 5% increase in Bitcoin dominance — making it an unlikely time for altcoins to shine. A real rotation into altcoins, he says, can only begin once Bitcoin’s market share starts to drop significantly.
Timing the Market Peak
Cowen believes the current bull cycle is likely to peak in Q4 of this year, in line with previous post-halving patterns seen in 2013, 2017, and 2021. So far, the ongoing rally has lasted 1,041 days — just shy of the previous peaks at 1,059 and 1,067 days.
Bear Market Outlook
Looking ahead, Cowen warns that a weekly close below Bitcoin’s 50-week simple moving average (SMA) — now near $98,000 — could mark the end of the cycle. Until then, he remains cautiously optimistic.
“As long as Bitcoin stays above the 50-week SMA, the bull market remains intact,” Cowen added.
