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$4.3 Billion in BTC and ETH Options Expiry Could Spark Market Volatility
Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) are set for a high-stakes session on Friday, with over $4.3 billion in options expiring on Deribit, creating a potential wave of short-term market turbulence.
$3.5B in Bitcoin Options Expire Today
Data shows that Bitcoin options worth $3.5 billion and with a total open interest of 30,208 contracts will expire today. The Put-to-Call Ratio (PCR) stands at 1.23, signaling more bearish bets, while the maximum pain level—the price where most contracts expire worthless—sits at $114,000.
Ethereum options expiring today carry a notional value of $806.75 million with 177,398 contracts. Unlike Bitcoin, Ethereum’s PCR is 0.99, slightly below parity, suggesting a tilt toward bullish sentiment. Its max pain point is at $4,500.
The max pain theory often influences market behavior, with prices tending to gravitate toward these levels as expiry nears. As of writing, Bitcoin trades around $117,147 and Ethereum at $4,590, leaving both close to their pain points.
Market Sentiment Split Between BTC and ETH
This week’s expiry numbers surpass last Friday’s, when $3.42 billion in Bitcoin and $858.2 million in Ethereum options expired. However, the key difference is Ethereum’s PCR now sitting below 1, highlighting stronger demand for Calls (buys) compared to Puts (sells).
Still, the data shows a relatively balanced outlook overall, as traders hedge portfolios amid uncertainty over post-Fed market moves.
Caution After Fed Rate Cut and Ahead of Record Expiry
Analysts note that options repriced ahead of the Federal Reserve’s rate cut, with implied volatility climbing while trading volumes dipped—a sign of market caution. According to Glassnode, Bitcoin is trading above $115,200, with 95% of supply in profit after the FOMC rally.
Looking ahead, the spotlight shifts to September 26, when a record-breaking $18 billion Bitcoin options expiry looms. At $118,000, more than $2.4 billion sits in the money, with a max pain level of $110,000.
Short-Term Volatility, Long-Term Stability
As options approach their 8:00 UTC expiry, traders should be prepared for turbulence. However, markets typically stabilize quickly once contracts settle. With today’s high-volume expiry, the weekend could bring shifting momentum—but also a clearer direction for the weeks ahead.
