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Bitcoin Holds Pattern: Analysts Eye $113K-$117K Resistance Zones
Bitcoin (BTC) remains in a narrow trading range around $110,000, reflecting a cautious market awaiting next week’s highly anticipated U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate decision. Despite a modest uptick, the cryptocurrency’s price has shown limited upward momentum as traders digest key macroeconomic signals and institutional activity.
Subdued Market Reaction Despite Weak U.S. Jobs Data
According to The Block, Bitcoin rose 0.44% in the past 24 hours, trading at $111,074 as of early Monday. The price action remains contained even after August U.S. nonfarm payrolls surprised to the downside, with only 22,000 jobs added versus the estimated 75,000. This weaker-than-expected report suggests a potential slowdown in the U.S. economy, bolstering expectations that the Federal Reserve could cut interest rates.
The CME FedWatch Tool currently reflects a 100% probability of a rate cut at the September 17 meeting, with a 25-basis-point reduction widely anticipated, though a 50-basis-point cut still carries a 10% probability.
Analysts Highlight Market Consolidation
Rachael Lucas, crypto analyst at BTC Markets, explained:
“The soft U.S. jobs report fueled expectations for a more dovish Fed, which is typically positive for risk assets like Bitcoin. However, some of this easing had already been priced in, and profit-taking by institutional desks has capped BTC’s momentum.”
Vincent Liu, CIO at Kronos Research, echoed the cautious outlook:
“Even if the Fed lowers rates, Bitcoin prices could remain subdued. Economic weakness, sticky inflation, and cautious risk sentiment limit appetite, making $120K+ a challenging barrier without stronger ETF inflows or liquidity expansion.”
Indeed, Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs saw weaker flows in early September compared to prior months, signaling a potential cooling in institutional momentum.
Key Levels and Market Structure
Lucas highlighted critical support and resistance zones:
- Support: $110,000 – holding this level maintains a constructive market structure.
- Resistance: $113,400, with higher targets at $115,400 and $117,100 – breaking these levels could indicate absorption of recent selling pressure and a retest of highs.
Analysts recommend monitoring both on-chain and off-chain indicators:
- On-chain: Stablecoin supply is near record highs, providing liquidity for potential rallies. Bitcoin and Ethereum exchange balances continue to decline, reducing near-term selling pressure.
- Off-chain: Regulatory developments, including SEC and CFTC efforts toward harmonized frameworks, along with ETF flow data, remain key sentiment drivers.
Liu added that the impact of the FOMC meeting on BTC could be amplified by the U.S. initial jobless claims report released the following day, potentially influencing short-term price dynamics.
The Road Ahead
As traders brace for the September FOMC meeting, the market remains highly sensitive to macroeconomic cues, institutional flows, and regulatory signals. While Bitcoin is consolidating around $110K, the combination of dovish Fed expectations and stablecoin liquidity suggests that a breakout to higher levels could occur if supportive catalysts align. Conversely, subdued ETF inflows and cautious sentiment may keep BTC range-bound, delaying a sustained rally.
Investors and analysts alike are closely watching these dynamics to gauge whether Bitcoin can overcome resistance levels and test its recent highs, or whether short-term volatility will continue to dominate the market.
