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Harvard Economist Eats Crow as Bitcoin Proves His $100 Prediction Spectacularly Wrong
Harvard Economist Kenneth Rogoff – Kenneth Rogoff, the Harvard economist who famously predicted Bitcoin would crash to $100 rather than reach $100,000, has finally admitted he completely missed the mark on cryptocurrency’s meteoric rise.
The $100 Prediction That Aged Like Milk
In a candid post on X Wednesday, Rogoff reflected on his disastrous 2018 prediction made during a CNBC “Squawk Box” appearance. “Almost a decade ago, I was the Harvard economist that said Bitcoin was more likely to be worth $100 than 100K. What did I miss?” he wrote, acknowledging the dramatic shift since Bitcoin shattered the $100,000 barrier in December 2024.
The former International Monetary Fund (IMF) chief economist and author of “Our Dollar, Your Problem” originally believed government regulation would trigger a massive Bitcoin price collapse. Instead, Bitcoin has surged over 80% to new all-time highs following the Trump administration’s election victory.
Three Major Miscalculations Revealed
Rogoff identified three critical factors he failed to anticipate. First, he was “far too optimistic about the US coming to its senses about sensible cryptocurrency regulation,” indicating his stance on crypto remains unchanged despite being spectacularly wrong.
Underground Economy Competition
Second, he didn’t appreciate how Bitcoin would compete with fiat currencies in the “twenty-trillion dollar global underground economy.” However, Chainalysis data shows cryptocurrency illicit activity totaled just $50 billion in 2024 – less than 1% of cash-based money laundering.
Regulatory Conflicts of Interest
Third, Rogoff never imagined regulators would “brazenly hold hundreds of millions (if not billions) of dollars in cryptocurrencies” despite obvious conflicts of interest.
Crypto Community Celebrates Victory
The crypto community wasn’t shy about celebrating Rogoff’s admission. Bitwise’s chief investment officer Matt Hougan noted he “failed to imagine that a decentralized project, which drew power from people and not centralized institutions, could succeed at scale.”
VanEck’s Matthew Sigel ranked Rogoff ninth among Bitcoin’s loudest critics, saying he “wrote Bitcoin’s obituary too early from within his own echo chamber.”
Ironically, Harvard Management Company, which oversees the university’s $53 billion endowment, recently reported a $116 million investment in BlackRock’s spot Bitcoin ETF – suggesting even Rogoff’s own institution disagrees with his assessment.
