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CDS Crypto News SEC’s Approval Odds for Spot BTC ETF Stand at 89%, as Indicated by Polymarket Traders

Crypto News

SEC’s Approval Odds for Spot BTC ETF Stand at 89%, as Indicated by Polymarket Traders

To mitigate risks associated with potential SEC delays in approving spot ETFs, certain investors are acquiring shares on the 'No' side of the prediction contract as a hedge.

Ecem EFE02/01/20241 Mins read170

SEC's Approval Odds for Spot BTC ETF Stand at 89%, as Indicated by Polymarket Traders

Crypto News- Traders on the decentralized prediction platform Polymarket are exuding confidence in the imminent launch of one or more bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the U.S. within the next two weeks. Presently, the “Bitcoin ETF approved by Jan 15” contract on the Yes side is valued at 89 cents, reflecting an 89% probability of the eagerly anticipated event occurring by the middle of this month. This probability has seen a substantial increase from approximately 50% just a month ago.

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SEC’s Approval Odds for Spot BTC ETF Stand at 89%, as Indicated by Polymarket Traders

Speculation has been rife in the market since early October regarding the impending debut of a U.S.-based spot ETF. Since then, the value of bitcoin has soared by over 55%, crossing the $45,000 mark, primarily driven by the optimism surrounding the expected influx of billions of dollars in investor capital into the bitcoin market through these upcoming ETFs.

Established in 2020, Polymarket has emerged as a premier prediction market, providing a platform for investors to wager on various events. At present, traders have invested $437,394 in a prediction contract dedicated to ETF approval, set to resolve as “Yes” if the SEC approves any ETF by January 15.

As per reports from Reuters, the SEC may notify the 14 current spot ETF applicants as early as Tuesday or Wednesday, signaling the approval for launching ETFs in the coming weeks.

Polymarket: 89% Odds for U.S. Bitcoin ETF by Jan 15 Excite Traders

In an effort to mitigate potential exposure to bullish market trends in the spot/futures market, some traders are acquiring shares on the No side of the contract. The rationale is that if the SEC delays the eagerly awaited ETF launch, it could trigger a decline in Bitcoin’s price.

A trader disclosed their strategy in the comments section of the prediction contract, remarking, “I’m purchasing No as insurance against my Long positions. If the ETF is not approved, the market is poised for a substantial downturn, but I stand to make profits regardless.