BTC Price Predictions: Will Bitcoin Bounce Back in October After September Dip?
BTC Price– As September begins, Bitcoin’s performance is far from impressive, with both monthly and weekly closes indicating a downturn. Trading near $57,000, Bitcoin (BTC) exhibits a distinct lack of bullish sentiment, as analysis reveals a low interest among traders.
Will Bitcoin Face Another ‘Rektember’ Downturn?
The notion of September being a challenging month for Bitcoin is well-established. Historical data suggests that September often proves to be a red month for Bitcoin returns. However, not all forecasts predict the worst. The mid-$60,000 range remains a viable short-term target for BTC, and September also marks the deadline for Bitcoin’s post-halving reaccumulation range.
BTC Price Approaches August Lows
Bitcoin’s performance around the recent monthly close has been lackluster. Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView reveals that the bullish momentum has faltered under persistent sell-side pressure. According to popular trader Skew, the market has seen low-timeframe conditions with minimal growth in market positioning, suggesting that traders have retreated from active trading.
Spot buyers around $58K have been evident, but the lack of interest in derivatives markets suggests that funding rates may remain negative or low, Skew noted. Bid support is concentrated around $56,750, with potential pushes to local lows before any relief for bulls, with estimates including $56,000 and $54,000.
Labor Day Week Focuses on US Jobs Data
With US markets closed for Labor Day on September 2, traders are awaiting macroeconomic data for potential volatility. The Federal Reserve’s meeting on interest rates on September 18 is a key event, with current expectations pointing to a minimal 0.25% rate cut. This contrasts with previous expectations of a 0.5% cut amid global economic turmoil.
The focus will be on August jobs data, with elevated volatility and trading conditions anticipated, stated The Kobeissi Letter. The S&P 500 has recently shown significant gains, outpacing crypto markets, which have struggled despite a brief recovery period.
Could September’s Trends Signal a ‘Red’ Month for Bitcoin?
August saw a decline of 8.6% in BTC/USD, setting the stage for a potentially challenging September. Historically, September tends to be a weak month for Bitcoin, with an average downside of around 4.5%. August generally performs better, making this year’s performance particularly disappointing.
Nevertheless, historical patterns suggest that timing might favor a rebound. Analyst Rekt Capital pointed out that BTC/USD may still be in its post-halving breakout phase. Bitcoin typically breaks out 150-160 days after the Halving, he explained, hinting at a potential breakout from the reaccumulation range in late September.
Puell Multiple Indicates Potential Buying Opportunity
The Puell Multiple metric, which compares daily mined Bitcoin values to their 365-day moving average, suggests that Bitcoin might be in a transitional phase. The Puell Multiple currently hovers around key levels, indicating potential buying opportunities.
Historically, a Puell Multiple below 0.6 represents an ideal time for Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA) strategies, while a breakout above 0.8 has been associated with bullish market behavior, noted contributor Grizzly.
Deep Learning Model Forecasts BTC Price Bounce
While September is traditionally a red month for Bitcoin, new analyses suggest 2024 might deviate from the norm. CryptoQuant’s WaveNet deep learning model predicts a relative increase in Bitcoin’s price. The model forecasts a 50% probability of the price reaching just beyond $65,000 this month.
The model shows a skew toward an upward price movement, with probabilities ranging from 50% to 90% for higher price levels, explained CryptoOnchain, providing a cautiously optimistic outlook for Bitcoin’s performance in the near future.
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