Bitcoin Price Expected to Swing 3.5% on Election Night: Here’s Why
Bitcoin Price Predictions – As the U.S. presidential election approaches, traders are preparing for heightened volatility in the Bitcoin market, with analysts predicting a potential 3.5% price swing on election night. According to QCP Capital analysts, the market is pricing in a plus or minus 3.5% movement in Bitcoin’s spot price on the night of the election itself. However, data from the derivatives market suggests that many traders are not positioning for potential risks that may arise if the election results are delayed or contested.
Bitcoin Options Market Reflects Bullish Sentiment Ahead of Election
The options market shows strong bullish sentiment among traders as election day nears. Notably, call options set to expire today have strike prices above $70,000, indicating that traders are anticipating a bullish rally. According to Deribit CEO Luuk Strijers, approximately $3 billion in open interest in Bitcoin options is set to expire on November 8. A significant portion of this consists of call options with strike prices at $70,000, $75,000, and $80,000. This suggests a strong conviction in the market that Bitcoin may rise post-election, regardless of the election’s outcome.
Scaramucci Optimistic About Bitcoin’s Future, Regardless of Election Outcome
Anthony Scaramucci, CEO of SkyBridge Capital, has expressed an optimistic outlook for Bitcoin ahead of the U.S. presidential election, stating that he believes Bitcoin will “go higher irrespective of who is the president.” Scaramucci suggested that a Trump victory might give Bitcoin a short-term boost, given Trump’s pro-business, deregulation stance, which could favor Bitcoin. On the other hand, Kamala Harris, who is seen as pro-blockchain and pro-Bitcoin, would also be a positive outcome for the crypto market, according to Scaramucci.
However, QCP Capital analysts warned that the low volatility premiums observed in the options market ahead of the election suggest that markets may be underestimating the potential for post-election volatility. With an expectation of a quick resolution, traders may be overlooking the possibility of delayed results or a contested election that could create significant price swings in the days following the election.
Bitcoin Dominance Surges as Altcoins Struggle
Ahead of the election, Bitcoin dominance has surged to over 60%, marking a new cycle high as interest in altcoins wanes. Leading altcoins like Ethereum and Solana have underperformed Bitcoin, with Ethereum down 7% and Solana down 10% over the past week. Analysts from Bitfinex note that Bitcoin is absorbing most of the capital flow into the crypto market, while altcoins are struggling to maintain momentum. With few new catalysts on the horizon for altcoins, their prospects for a short-term recovery remain slim.
Deribit CEO Luuk Strijers echoed this sentiment, highlighting that Bitcoin’s market share has reached levels not seen since 2021, further solidifying its position as the dominant cryptocurrency in the market.
Bitcoin’s Safe-Haven Status Strengthens Its Dominance
According to Sygnum Bank’s Q4 2024 Investment Report, Bitcoin’s increasing dominance is driven by its growing reputation as a safe-haven asset. The report points to the fact that capital flows have increasingly favored Bitcoin over altcoins, with investors seeking stability amid the broader crypto market volatility. The report also highlights that sectors related to cryptocurrency applications, like memecoins, have been detracting from the growth of economically productive blockchain projects, which further supports Bitcoin’s status as a store of value.
Bitcoin Price Stability Amid Market Shifts
As of the latest data, Bitcoin is trading above $68,700, with a relatively flat performance over the past 24 hours. Meanwhile, the GMCI 30 index, which tracks the top 30 cryptocurrencies, has seen a slight decline of 0.45%, settling at 119.97. Despite the broader market stagnation, Bitcoin remains resilient, with its dominance continuing to grow ahead of the election.
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