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Bitcoin Price Outlook: Why $116K Is the Magnet for Bulls and Bears
Bitcoin Price Prediction – Bitcoin (BTC) begins August at a pivotal moment—fresh from a 5.26% drop to $112,250, it rebounded to trade near $114,410, leaving traders torn between bearish correction fears and hopes of renewed upward momentum.
$116,500 the New Price “Magnet”
Trading data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView indicates mounting interest around $115,000–$116,500. Popular analyst TheKingfisher dubbed $116,500 a key liquidation point for short BTC positions. Meanwhile, trader Daan Crypto Trades highlighted historical patterns that suggest monthly moves often exceed 3.6%, and August could be no different.
Is August Repeating January’s Pattern?
January’s peak of $109,300 triggered a painful retracement—Bitcoin fell below $75,000 in April. But according to trader CrypNuevo, the current market environment isn’t a replay: recent dips below the 50-day EMA (~$112,900) were brief, and structural differences suggest divergence from past behavior. He believes $110K support could hold firm.
The Fed Factor: Rate Cut Speculation Returns
Macro pressures remain high as attention shifts back to the U.S. Federal Reserve. Economic uncertainty and hawkish fiscal policy keep rate-cut speculation alive. Market pricing now anticipates a 0.25% interest rate cut in September, as per CME Group’s FedWatch Tool. Fed officials, including Vice Chair Michelle Bowman, may signal openness to easing in coming statements.
Sell-Offs Unleash Liquidation Pressure
On-chain data shows a wave of de-risking as 40,000+ BTC moved to exchanges on August 1, mostly from short-term holders (STHs). CryptoQuant analyst Arab Chain noted that when whale wallets
lead exchange inflows, liquidation events and sharp declines usually follow.
Demand Still Stays Resilient
Wallet-tracking data from CryptoQuant’s Darkfost flagged a positive demand trend: 160,000 BTC accumulated in the past 30 days. Accumulator wallets added 50,000 BTC, and OTC holdings surged to over 500,000 BTC—up from 145,000 BTC in 2021. Despite volatility and short-term selling pressure, demand-side metrics remain firmly bullish.
