Bitcoin Options Expiry in Focus as Bulls Defend $61,000 Mark
All eyes are on the Bitcoin options expiry set for Friday, with bulls successfully maintaining the BTC price above $61,000 at the time of writing. In the ongoing battle between bulls and bears, Bitcoin’s price has largely fluctuated between $59,000 and $61,000 throughout the week.
18,474 Bitcoin Options Expire Today
Data from Deribit reveals that 18,474 BTC options, with a notional value of $1.12 billion, are due to expire today. The put-call ratio stands at 0.83, indicating that market sentiment isn’t entirely bearish, although it’s approaching neutral territory. This ratio suggests that puts are providing strong competition to calls. Earlier in the week, it was reported that BTC options block trading has been increasing, with traders selling call options and purchasing puts. The max pain point for today’s Bitcoin options expiry is set at $60,000, as illustrated in the accompanying chart.
Additionally, the data shows a decrease in weekly options positions, with implied volatility remaining neutral ahead of the Jackson Hole meeting later today. Overall, the options market is signaling a calm period, with a stable term structure and a gradual decline in expected future volatility.
Bitcoin Trading Expected to Stay Subdued
Throughout the second quarter of 2024, Bitcoin’s price has remained within a range, oscillating between $50,000 and $70,000. Well-known crypto analyst Will Woo has suggested that this subdued price action is likely to continue until the market sheds excess leverage.
Woo noted that the Bitcoin crash in early August triggered a significant liquidation of leveraged positions, leading to a substantial reduction in open interest. He described this as a “healthy reset” of open value, essential for Bitcoin to achieve further gains.
The analyst further remarked that Bitcoin’s price action needs to become “really boring” before it can make any significant upward moves. He estimates that the market is about two-thirds of the way through this process, with much of the speculative activity already cleared out. However, more spot BTC absorption is still necessary.
Woo also mentioned that the crypto market has moved from a bearish to a neutral stance, indicating that the bear market phase is over. Instead, Bitcoin is now in a prolonged consolidation phase, he explained.
Ether Options Expiry
In addition to Bitcoin, 140,000 Ethereum (ETH) options are set to expire today, with a Put/Call Ratio of 0.93. The max pain point for Ether options is $2,625, with a notional value of $370 million. Currently, Ethereum’s price is up 1.4%, trading at $2,672 with a market cap of $321 billion, as it eyes a potential rally toward $3,000.
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