Bitcoin and Ethereum: Why 2025’s First Quarter Could Be a Game Changer
Bitcoin and Ethereum are on track to experience their worst first-quarter performances in years, unless a significant rally materializes in the next few days. As of March 26, Ethereum (ETH) has dropped 37.98% in Q1 2025, marking its worst Q1 decline since 2018 when it fell 46.61%, according to CoinGlass data. In contrast, Bitcoin (BTC) has seen a more modest decline of 6.49%, but this still represents its worst Q1 since 2020, when it recorded a 10.83% drop.
Unlikely Rally Before Quarter’s End
Despite hopes for a market turnaround, analysts are skeptical of a quick rebound. Pav Hundal, lead analyst at Swyftx, told Cointelegraph that a “vertical swing up” is unlikely before the end of the quarter. He emphasized that the crypto market will be “flying a little blind” until mid-April, when clearer insights into U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff plans are expected. Hundal also mentioned that global economic data shows the economy in decent shape, but crypto markets remain uncertain.
Potential for Bitcoin Rally in Coming Months
Some analysts believe Bitcoin could see a major rally soon after the Q1 ends. Colin Talks Crypto, a well-known commentator, speculated that Bitcoin might begin its “next major blast-off” around April 30. Similarly, Swan Bitcoin CEO Cory Klippsten suggested a greater than 50% chance that Bitcoin could hit new all-time highs before June.
Historical Trends in Q1 Performance
Historically, Q1 has been Ether’s strongest quarter, while Bitcoin has also performed well. Since 2017, Ethereum has averaged a 78.23% gain in Q1, while Bitcoin has seen an average return of 51.62% since 2013. However, 2025 has proven to be an exception to these trends.
ETH/BTC Ratio and Market Sentiment
At the time of publication, Bitcoin is trading at $87,558, and Ether is priced at $2,059, showing a 5.08% and 5.88% increase over the past 24 hours, respectively. The ETH/BTC ratio has fallen to its lowest point since May 2020, now sitting at 0.2348. Overall, the entire crypto market capitalization has declined by 11.65% since January 1, now totaling $2.88 trillion, according to CoinMarketCap data. Despite some initial optimism after Bitcoin surpassed $100,000 in late 2024, macroeconomic conditions have led to a downturn, with uncertainty around tariffs and U.S. federal interest rates contributing to the broader market sentiment shift. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index is currently at a “Neutral” score of 47 as of March 26.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Cryptocurrencies and stocks, particularly in micro-cap companies, are subject to significant volatility and risk. Please conduct thorough research before making any investment decisions.
Leave a comment