Was Satoshi Nakamoto Active Until 2014?
Conor Grogan, a director at Coinbase, claims to have identified Bitcoin wallets linked to Satoshi Nakamoto, suggesting that the pseudonymous creator of Bitcoin remained active on-chain until as late as 2014.
The last publicly known communication from Nakamoto dates back to April 2011, when he emailed Bitcoin developer Mike Hearn, stating, “I’ve moved on to other things. It’s in good hands with Gavin and everyone.” This message marked his apparent departure from the project. Nakamoto had already begun to scale back his involvement in the preceding months, but his exit coincided with Bitcoin’s new lead developer, Gavin Andresen, meeting with the CIA—an event that has fueled ongoing speculation about whether external pressures played a role in Nakamoto’s disappearance.
Some believe that Satoshi simply chose to remain anonymous or step away for personal reasons, while others theorize that his abrupt vanishing may indicate his passing or some other unforeseen circumstance that prevented further involvement.
Analyzing the ‘Patoshi Pattern’
Grogan’s assertion is based on a series of Bitcoin addresses associated with the so-called “Patoshi Pattern,” a mining pattern first identified by blockchain researcher Sergio Demian Lerner. The pattern suggests that a single early miner (widely believed to be Satoshi) was responsible for mining approximately 1.1 million BTC. While it remains impossible to definitively link these addresses to Nakamoto, Grogan argues that the evidence is compelling.
According to Grogan, if Satoshi still holds these Bitcoin, his estimated fortune of $109 billion would make him wealthier than Bill Gates. However, some researchers contend that the 1.1 million BTC estimate could be exaggerated due to overlapping mining behaviors, suggesting a more conservative range of 600,000 to 700,000 BTC. Others have speculated that Nakamoto may have mined as much as 1.5 million BTC.
Lerner’s original research highlighted a distinct mining strategy in which the Patoshi miner avoided mining consecutive blocks, likely as a means of ensuring greater decentralization in the Bitcoin network.
Was Bitcoin’s Creator Canadian? Does Kraken Hold the Key?
Grogan identified 24 outgoing transactions from these so-called Satoshi-linked addresses, with the most frequent recipient being a wallet beginning with “1PYYj.” This address has also received Bitcoin from the Canadian exchange CaVirtEx, leading Grogan to speculate that this could be the first documented on-chain link between a Satoshi-associated wallet and a centralized exchange.
While Canadian exchanges primarily serve Canadian users, they are open to international customers as well. Notably, “1PYYj” is connected to another prominent Bitcoin address, “12ib7,” which currently holds approximately $3 billion in BTC. Grogan argues that this strengthens the case for “1PYYj” being linked to either Nakamoto himself or a very early Bitcoin adopter.
The idea that Satoshi may have ties to Canada is not new. In October 2024, the HBO documentary Money Electric speculated that early Bitcoin developer Peter Todd—who is Canadian—might be Nakamoto. However, Todd quickly denied the claim, and critics pointed out flaws in the documentary’s reasoning.
Adding another layer to the mystery, CaVirtEx was acquired by Kraken in 2016. Grogan suggested that Kraken’s co-founder, Jesse Powell, or others at the exchange might possess information about Nakamoto’s identity—if the exchange retained Know Your Customer (KYC) data linked to these wallets. He added, “My advice to him would be to delete the data.”
Kraken has never publicly claimed to know Satoshi’s identity. When asked, Powell has previously stated that he believes Bitcoin’s creator is likely an individual or a small group with deep technical expertise and that some members of the cryptocurrency community may already know his identity. In response to Grogan’s claims, Kraken’s official X account simply posted, “We are all Satoshi.”
The Significance of the Findings
Grogan believes that these new insights could help confirm whether the Patoshi mining pattern truly belongs to Nakamoto alone. He also noted that this discovery has changed his perspective on previous theories about Satoshi’s identity.
“This is the first set of evidence I’ve seen in years that has decreased my confidence that Satoshi was Len [Sassaman],” Grogan remarked, referencing the cryptographer and privacy advocate who passed away in 2011.
Despite uncovering activity linked to these early wallets up until 2014, Grogan remains convinced that Satoshi is no longer actively involved. “This research gives me MORE confidence that these coins aren’t moving and that Satoshi is no longer active. No movement in any connected wallets through 2014 is very bullish!”
Grogan has been actively investigating early Bitcoin transactions. Just last month, he claimed to have identified 430 BTC associated with Silk Road founder Ross Ulbricht—coins that had remained untouched for 13 years.
While the true identity of Bitcoin’s creator remains one of the greatest mysteries in modern finance, Grogan’s findings add a new chapter to the ongoing search for Satoshi Nakamoto.
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